Stats Canada data out, USDA tomorrow.
Mixed grain markets this morning, with soybeans trying to recover some of Monday’s losses. Stats Canada was out with their yearend grain stock totals this morning, and all-wheat stocks came in at 22.294 MMTs (estimates were at 22.3 MMT). Canola stocks were pegged at 11.356 MMT (estimates 11.70 MMT. Oat stocks were 3.591 MMTs (estimates 3.6 MMTs.)
This Wednesday, the USDA will be out with its February WASDE crop report at 11:00 a.m. Most of the attention will be garnered toward how they adjust the Argentine soybean and corn crop. Estimates suggest they will produce a 42.5 MMT bean crop and a corn crop of around 48.5 MMTs. Due to recent rains, 60% of the Argentine corn crop and 50% of the soybean crop were seeded after December 1. They may be reserved with potential yield recovery available in future reports.
Indonesia is reviewing its palm oil export ratio called the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) program. Indonesia is the world’s largest palm oil exporter, and they are concerned with rising domestic cooking oil prices. They are prepared to suspend the export permits till April to provide additional domestic supply. This has produced a two-day world palm oil rally which helped bean oil recover yesterday and overnight while the soybean meal slipped. Malaysian palm oil futures rose Tuesday by 2%.
A thunderstorm cluster formed over Buenos Aires, Argentina, overnight, producing a near half-inch of rainfall before the system pushed off the eastern coast. The remainder of Argentina and Southern Brazil was dry. The Argentine forecast now is dry for another 4-5 days before showers return late on the weekend. The rain starts on Sunday and lingers in the next week, Wednesday, with totals estimated ranging between .5-2.00” with a few locally heavier amounts. The overnight forecast is slightly wetter than prior runs, building confidence that rain will occur in this event. The extended 11-15 day period offers a return to arid weather conditions. Argentine rainfall produces changes every 10 days, which is enough to maintain the crop but does not rebuild soil moisture.
Another good day of gains for live cattle and feeder’s yesterday with a steady firm outlook this morning. March feeder cattle made its best close since the beginning of the year, while live cattle contracts continued to new contract highs. Negotiated fed cattle markets are anticipated to be firm as last week’s five-area average price gained $3 to $158. Box beef had choice gaining $1.83, while select was $2.11 higher. The choice/select spread has narrowed to $12.85 choice premium even as a record large percentage of the Fed cattle supply makes choice quality grade.