Grains are higher then last Friday, but strength is being checked.
Friday morning’s grain trade is lower across the board after minor strength arrived on the night session opening. Needed rainfall is starting to fall across the Argentine crop areas, and the grain trade has invested a lot in China returning after this week's New Year Holiday ends. China has not shown a willingness to buying large quantities, rather they just dribble long and buy two cargoes at a time.
Brazilian premiums are declining after Thursday's CBOT grain rally. Brazilian March fob soybeans are $0.55/bushel cheaper than the US Gulf, with March Soymeal $42/MT and soy oil $0.14/pound cheaper. Even Argentine Soymeal basis is easing do to the recent rains now occurring with offers from March at $15/MT cheaper than the US Gulf at $40 over. Index funds need a bullish story to sell into to liquidate their record soybean meal ownership or will get caught in a precipitous decline.
The Biden administration has announced it will provide $118 Mil dollars to accelerate the production of US biofuels in 2023. The money will go to 17 new facilities to speed up production of low carbon fuels. This new funding is coming as rumors that EPA administrator Regan will be stepping down from his position. New renewable fuel data will be out today including production of US renewable diesel for November.
Rain is starting this morning across the heart of Argentine's corn and soybean areas as showers and thunderstorms are forming along a slow-moving cold front. Actual rainfall totals have yet to be reported, but models are consistent forecasting 1-3.50″of rain accumulation over the next 10 days. As the cases been lately, the GFS remains drier than the EU model, but there has been going on for weeks. Both models do show soaking rain reaching northward into our GDS and southern Brazil during the weekend with rain totals there also of 1-3.00″.
Cattle trade yesterday was lower across the board and a steady/week outlook is offered for early trade today. Early week price positive momentum was lost on the grain price rally mid-week. The week's cash trade got underway at no better than steady for the week. Nebraska and the IA/MN region sold cattle steady at $248. There is more business to be done later today and the outlook is steady if not better money. Export sales reports yesterday showed be sales totaling 55 mill pounds. This is the largest one-week sales volume since May 2022. Weekly export sales were similar with the previous week at 34 mill pounds. The live/feeder cattle board continues to stay in its seasonal corrective nature of strength at the opening in the year, with weakness into the end of January/opening February.