EU weather models reduce Argy rain.
The overnight grain trade was mixed for corn and wheat while the soybean market quickly added premium back in with, with the March soybean contract recovering back to the 15.00 mark, as the afternoon forecasts substantially reduced the weekend rainfalls for Argentina. The mid-day models on Tuesday implied better rains for Friday-Sunday, and now the forecast shifted to at best, 40-45% coverage of up to 1.00″potential. Also, next week temperatures rise to the upper 90s to near 100.
Volatility ascertaining South American weather continues as the January 1 time frame is similar to the July 4 time window for concerning crop development. Soybean meal remains competitive with South American origin for January-February arrival from Argentina remain strong into early winter. Weather will determine over the next 30 days when the seasonal price decline gets underway. For now, many are anticipating a record yield out of Brazil to mute upside response, as prospects continue to remain near ideal.
The Argentine forecast went drier in the European weather model solution, as the eastern areas struggle with details beyond 4-5 days. Scattered showers now will impact the core Argentine ag belt Sunday-Monday with totals near 1.00″and coverage at less than 45% of the corn and soybean producing areas. Meanwhile soaking rains will continue over much of Brazil into the weekend. It's anticipated that early planted soybean harvest will get underway within two weeks for Brazil.
The live cattle 2023 contracts all made new contract highs yesterday after the friendly inspired cattle on feed report, but closed near unchanged at the end of the session. Feeder cattle were soft throughout the whole session on the firm feed grain pricing. Cash cattle trade is anticipated to be firm through midweek as boxed beef values were again sharply higher for choice by $8.09, and select gained $0.17. The live inventories have seen the largest decline now in seven years with difficult weather in the north to maintain a positive cash outlook this week.