Wheat stumbles on competition.
Grain futures corrected overnight as the wheat market has come to grips with the rally it’s experienced alongside corn and soybeans has been met by a readily available supply out of Russia. Wheat exports for December out of Russia are now pegged at 4.0-4.4 MMTs when just two weeks ago, the estimates were at 2.5-3.0 MMTs. Even Ukrainian grain shipments have increased as of late, despite the Russian launches into inner areas of Ukraine which continue.
Soybeans maintained yesterday’s recovery gains back over 15.00 but are still trading on the underside of the early week high. Export business is slowing on the recent price strength, and corn exports are not improving with recent price gains either. US corn exports pick up towards February into May when South American supplies are typically exhausted and await new crop arrival. New year tax selling from US farmers will likely cap follow-through strength that continues into next week.
Overnight weather models hint that Argentina could see some rain from NW Buenos Aires into central Córdoba are improving for this weekend with the potential of .5-1.5” into Monday. Otherwise, dryness returns with warming temps past the week that persist into January 13. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange will update seeding progress, crop conditions, and crop estimates this afternoon.
The cash cattle market was quiet on Wednesday, while December cattle futures pushed to new contract highs. Light sales in the IA/MN region were quoted $1 higher for the week on a live basis at $158 while near steady on the dressed bases at $248. Plains cattle were still on traded but were offered at $158. Box beef was mixed on Wednesday with choice cutout down $0.63 after gaining $8 on Tuesday, while select gained $1.64. A strong seasonal price pattern dictates live cattle and feeder cattle rallies that occur from December 7 typically find a high on the last trading day of the year or in the first two trading days of the new year.