Grain futures continued to make new weekly lows overnight.
Grain futures moved lower overnight, with wheat and corn pacing the declines, as they did not suffer the damage that soybeans did on Thursday. Soybean oil is sharply lower again today, lower by over two cents a pound, as trading limits have been now moved to 7 cents, with soybean meal moving potentially $45/ton and soybeans $1 .50/bushel potential after yesterday’s limit down move in soybean oil.
Yesterday corn broke strategic support, spilling it into a new downtrend with the prospect that next Friday’s USDA crop report risks the potential cuts in US exports, subsequently raising the corn carryout. Soybeans have key support in the 1413-1417 range (200-day MA and trendline) that needs to hold on a closing basis, or it to will face acceleration to the downside.
November payrolls out at 7:30 this morning suggest interest rate hikes are not cooling the economy yet. This morning’s payroll data was supposed to be the lowest since December 2020, with estimates of 200K, with some even suspecting lower. The actual new employment rate came in above 263,000, with wages also showing a .6% rise over last month. This has the US dollar back rebounding, as the Fed may be turning soft to quick.
South American weather forecasts on both the EU and GFS models continue to be favorable for Brazilian crops, while Argentina will experience a round of heat from December 3-6 of upper 90s-low 100s. Rain chances improve by December 7, with potential two-week totals rising into the 1.00-2.00” range.
Live cattle trade softened Thursday, with a mixed opening anticipated this morning as equities turned lower after the jobs report. Cash trade in the southern plains was mainly steady at $155 last week. Southern plains trade looks to remain steady in a range of $153-156. Retail beef prices are starting to soften and could prompt weaker cash cattle bids as packers become pinched. Seasonally cattle futures tend to rally from December 7 into the new year, and climbing a wall of worry will again be the norm.