Wheat futures lead price gains overnight.
Grain futures moved higher overnight as expected but did not go limit bid on wheat, with corn and soybeans reflecting a higher move on the spread pull of wheat on protein values. Unlike February, the world has some experience right now with the war in the Black Sea, and they know that grain, as much as 3 MMTs, will continue to move out of Ukraine through the West via rail and through river channels, while Russia will continue to export its massive wheat crop. The UN and Turkey are working to clear vessels currently afloat carrying Ukraine agricultural products with the intention to continue moving until something goes wrong.
Sunday night, Brazil’s presidential election shows that Lula Da Silva won with fractional margins and will bring an administration that will challenge the ongoing massive expansion of crop area in NW Brazil. The Brazilian Reel will be closely watched as a reaction to Lula’s victory, with expectations that further currency weakening lies ahead, which makes nearby Brazilian corn and soybeans more attractive to end users than US values.
EU and GFS weather models show rainfall through November 14 in South America, with dry areas over the next 8-9 days. Normal shower activity returns to Central Brazil after November 8, with hints of better rain chances, and in Northern Argentina. La Niña remains intact in Argentina, prolonging dryness there and potentially in Río Grande do Sul in southern Brazil. The Central Plains have chances of rain within a week for the dry Kansas and eastern Nebraska wheat crop.
New contract highs early last week were experienced in the live cattle futures markets, with feeder cattle anticipated to soften this morning with a strong feed grain market. Negotiated fed trade last week had sales in Nebraska and Iowa $1-2 higher at $152-153, while dressed trade in both areas was up $5 at $240. Southern plains were mostly $2 higher at $150. Box beef values gained sharply with choice up $9.55 and select picking up $10.13. Seasonal demand is on the bill now. December live cattle look to struggle on attempts into the $154-155 for a while.