Grains struggle ahead of last trading trading day before Thanksgiving.
Grain futures put in a directionless night, crossing unchanged several times while ending mostly softer at the end of the morning session. The export sales data that we would normally see Thursday morning is delayed until Friday, and the December options expire on Friday’s close.
Crude oil is back under 80.00 as China’s daily covert infection rates keep rising and have now surpassed 28,000, which is just below their past April record. It appears China’s economic reopening is being pushed back in time which is having an inverse impact on the overall demand for raw products.
Russian Pres. Putin has indicated he would work to unblock Russian fertilizers blocked at ports and free the ammonia flow through a pipeline that crosses Ukraine. The recent grain pact has promised to make it easier for Russia to export grain and fertilizers due to the lowering of sanctions on their Russian state bank.
Turkey is tendering for 455,000 MTs of wheat for December into mid-February. Turkey remains an active importer of wheat for its population and will likely take Russian wheat. China is moving to auction off 40,000 MTs estate wheat stocks on November 30. China has been auctioning off broken rice and wheat to help curtail imports of world feed grains, including US corn/sorghum.
The EU and GFS weather models agree on South American weather that daily showers will drop across most of Brazil, with the 10-day rain accumulations in a range of 3-6.00”. The southern areas of Brazil will be more confined to .25-1.50” of rain. 8-9 days of dry weather are in the forecast for Argentina, with rain returning on November 30-December 2. Temperatures remain primarily seasonal.
Live and feeder cattle trade was mainly lower on Tuesday, putting a retreat on Monday’s COF report gains with a steady soft trade anticipated this morning. The cold storage report yesterday afternoon showed end-of-month October beef stocks declining 3% from September but were still a percent larger than a year ago. The decline reversed what was occurring in September were stocks increased. Stocks were back below 525 Mil pounds. Negotiated fed cattle trade is still yet to occur, with show lists offered at $154-155 in the South. A better trade over last week is anticipated in the cash market.