World grain trade suggests a mixed restart.
Grain futures are anticipated to have a mixed start this morning. They could be a few pennies higher or lower, as China’s daily Covid infections are broadening lockdowns while a slow soybean seeding pace continues in Argentina. French milling wheat was sharply lower on Thursday but recovered all its losses today, leaving that market searching for direction. December options expire at today’s close, creating intraday volatility over the 3:30 minutes we are open.
Export sales released this morning at 7:30 showed the numbers inside of trade estimates, with soybean meal the standout, almost double average expectations.
Egypt was in the marketplace purchasing 175,000 MTs of Ukraine/Russian wheat for December/January at $3614/MT. Egypt continues to use the Black Sea wheat to fill its import needs. Pakistan has canceled a recent 500,000 MTs of wheat tender that some suggest was because of price. Ukrainian grain exports are restarted following last week’s agreement and are slowly picking up their pace.
Argentina’s soybean seeding pace was put at half of last year with 19.4% for soybean seeding, and they are 6.2% behind on corn when currently at 24%. Argentine farmers have delayed seeding amid the hope that La Niña fades by early 2023.
The EU and GFS weather models forecast daily showers to drop across most of N and C Brazil with a 10-day rainfall accumulation of 3-6.00”. Southern Brazil will experience .25-1.50”, which is slightly below normal this time of year. The 5-6 days of dry weather is continuing to be forecasted for Argentina with high temps in the 80s-mid 90s. They have rain chances on November 30-December 2 with a frontal pass of favors mostly Buenos Aires and La Pampa.
Live and feeder cattle close lower on Wednesday and should have a steady-better outlook offered for this morning. Negotiated fed cattle trade for the week was sharply higher on Wednesday, with cattle in the South selling $4-5 higher from last week at $154-155. Sales in Nebraska and the IA/MN region were up $2-3 and $156-158. Box beef values were sharply lower, with choice dropping $4.07 and select down $0.82. The choice/select spread narrowed to a $9.23 choice premium. February live cattle have strong support on corrections into the 152-154 range. The bullish seasonal tendency for an up move in price kicks in after December 7.