Risk-off ends the week in commodities and equities.
Grain futures drifted overnight as the US dollar firmed, causing further selling and risk-off in equities, energies, and metals. The September core PCI price index came in stronger than expected, with risk-off trading continuing in equities, metals, and energies. Harvest pressure continues to be noted as we head towards the weekend, with preselling anticipated.
The USDA will release its 2023/ 24 US baseline productions on November 7. The November baseline release provides the first glimpse into the USDA's ideas on new crop supply/demand. The US export forecast on November 7th will be based on the US position in the world Ag market as a whole.
Black Sea markets continue to move grain, with Russia also likely to score a new seasonal high of 4.5- 4.6 MMTs in October. Despite negative rhetoric towards the potential non-extension of the corridor beyond November 19th, the grain trade continues to perform as if it will be extended.
EU and GFS weather models show needed rain continuing to fall in the hole across Brazil into next Monday- Tuesday of numeral 1-3 inches projected. Below normal precip is indicated through most of western Argentina, with only the eastern portions picking up potential rain. Brazilian soybean plantings should end in the next two weeks. Argentina on the calendar just gets started over the past week.
Live and feeder cattle endured moderate selling yesterday, while the cash trade did improve, with a few trades $2 higher than last week. The bulk of the trade is waiting with offers at $151-152 in the South and $155-156 in the north. Box beef on Thursday was mixed with choice down $0.57 and select gaining $1.25. The December live cattle look to have hit a resistance zone that will stall trade at 154-155.