Ukrainian Safe Grain Corridor is renewed.
Grain markets tumbled in the early morning hours as newswires reported that all parties involved in the Black Sea Export corridor have allowed it to extend for 120-days automatically. The original deal is renewed, so the corridor will only cover the same three ports in Ukraine, and negotiators were unable to push for a full one-your extension. Since war is a fluid thing, it goes without saying that Russia would not extend beyond that timeframe, as it gives Putin continued leverage in the future. With grain values finding wheat breaching new monthly lows but finding buying interest overnight, it’s plausible that the grain corridor news has now become old news as the markets look toward new inputs.
Soy oil which had been the bellwether holding soybeans higher since the first of the month has tumbled sharply from last week’s high due in part to weakness in the energy markets and the break in Malaysian palm oil valuations. Also, US cash prices are struggling with much cheaper offers from Argentina from February forward. Argentina is also offering another special soybean/dollar exchange which will boost South American producer sales into late year.
South American weather has turned slightly wetter for Northern Argentina while trending slightly drier across the southern half of Brazil. There is a broad agreement that scattered showers will follow up again in Argentina Sunday-Monday. The greatest totals are in the .5-1.00”, which favors southern Buenos Aires and Córdoba in central Argentina. Near zero rain is offered to Argentina in the 6-15 day period, with meaningful precipitation in Brazil confined to the northern soybean growing regions.
Wednesday’s negotiated fed cattle trade was very limited, with sales in the southern plains steady, with last week’s $150 sales, and the Northern Plains also steady at $153. Box beef values moved lower, with choice dropping $1.27 and select slipping $0.41. The choice select spread is now $25.74 choice premium, off the highs but still historically strong for November. This upcoming Friday is the November Cattle on Feed report, with average trade estimates looking for an On Feed number near 98%, placements under 97%, and marketing’s near 101% of a year ago.