Safe Grain Corridor appears on track for an extension.
Grain futures were lower/sharply lower overnight when in the early morning hours, Bloomberg news reported that Russia would extend the Ukraine Grain Export Corridor. They will do so once they see assurances and actual progress that US/Europe will lift sanctions on the Russian state bank, Rosselkhozbank, including the Swift system and ability to garner freight insurance on seaborne vessels transporting Russian grain and fertilizer. The UN cannot yet confirm whether it will be a one-year extension and if several additional Ukrainian ports will be added, as requested by Kiev.
The NOPA will be out at 11:00 a.m. CT today with the October Crush report. Record cash margins are anticipated to push US processors to consume 184-187 Mil Bu of soybeans for the third or potentially fourth-largest monthly crush rate on record. Soy oil supplies are forecasted at 1.545 Bil pounds, up 5% from last month.
The US dollar is sharply lower again this morning, at 105.44, down 1.08, encroaching upon the August lows as the PPI came out this morning, showing that inflation has stalled. The month-over-month PPI came in at .2% versus expectations of .4%, while year-over-year came in at 8% versus expectations of 8.3%. Grain futures recovered moderately from overnight weakness after the release of the PPI with the ongoing US dollar weakness.
In South America, daily showers across Brazil are forecasted in the 10-day models for the EU and GFS, while dry weather returns to Argentina. Brazilian weather is normalizing with an increase in rain accumulations into December. The Argentine forecast calls for below-normal rainfall, with a few showers for Buenos Aires in Córdoba this weekend. Otherwise, the forecast is arid. The high temperatures will be normal, between the 80s and low 90s.
Live cattle for the 2023 contracts and feeder cattle were lower on Monday, with a steady/better opening anticipated due to the strong equity markets this morning after the PPI. Feedlots anticipate moving catalyst week above $150, with momentum having slowed in recent weeks, which is typical for November. Box beef prices were softer, with choice down $0.96 and select down $2.06. Choice beef cutout values this week are $25 cheaper than a year ago and select is $34 cheaper. December live cattle are close to key support that should hold on any further weakness in the 149.50-150.50 range.