NASS crop report out at 11:00 AM today.

Grain futures turned softer overnight as further progress is being seen with discussions to extend the Ukraine Export corridor. Russia is seeking an exemption for a Russian bank to facilitate Russian grain/fertilizer trade, and negotiations are ongoing that this may occur with the supervisory bank. Concerns are that Russia will use this as an opportunity to buy military arms if not monitored.

CONAB estimated the 2022 Brazilian soybean crop at 153.5 MMTs, up 1.2 MMTs from the prior estimate, while holding their corn harvest steady at 126.4 MMTs. CONAB continues to raise its planted area in soybeans which some analysts believe could push their soybean crop to 156 MMTs. With recent rains and improving prospects for Argentina, row crop supplies are growing for what will be available in the first and second quarters of 2023.

The crop report from the NASS is out today at 11:00 a.m., with carryouts as the focus. Corn is estimated to come in at 1.215 Mil Bu, with soybeans at 221 Mil Bu; both are higher than last month. Corn yield is guessed at 171.9 bu/acre, with soybeans at 50 Bu/acre.

South American weather forecasts via the EU and GFS are becoming more favorable for a setup that rainfall will occur across Brazil and Argentina over the next two weeks. As regional soil moisture builds, a good start is being developed for the 2022/23 growing season. This Friday, the rain will start with almost daily rainfall events in north and central Brazil, while the weekend looks wet for S Brazil/Argentina. High temps will be normal readings that range in the 80s to low 90s.

Live cattle worked through a quiet trade yesterday with a mixed close and a steady softer outlook anticipated. Negotiated fed cattle markets were mostly un-traded, with feedlots quoting their offers $2 higher from last week at $152 in the South. Box beef prices did move higher, with choice gaining $0.39 and select up $0.13. resistance for December cattle is 154-155, with November seasonally being a choppy month.