Grain Corridor under discussion to continue.
Grain prices are under pressure today with harvest back in focus and conversations that the Black Sea Grain Corridor has a chance to be extended. The US dollar is also trading back near 113.00 as the UK struggles again with the end of its emergency bond-buying program, putting downward pressure on energies, metals, and overall commodities.
Chinese demand has been robust this week for beans after returning from their Harvest Festival holiday, and it’s anticipated they may be satisfying their needs through December. January offers from Brazil are much lower than the US, and China could be potentially done with their buying program for US beans soon unless prices were to drift substantially. The trade will again anticipate another announcement this morning of sales to China. Overall export sales data out this morning, delayed due to the Columbus Day holiday on Monday, again showed poor performance for corn, beans, and wheat through last week. An ongoing problem. Obviously, soybean sales will be large in next Thursday’s data release.
The UN continues to work on extending the Russian/Turkey/Ukrainian corridor deal as progress was reported overnight. Russia is seeking to limit Ukraine’s corridor grain exports to impoverished countries. The UN is trying to broker an agreement to extend the year with a meeting scheduled later this weekend in Moscow. Corridor haggling will continue for weeks while Ukraine stays active in shipping out nearby grain exports.
The US central weather forecast remains with an arid weather pattern with active harvest occurring. Several cold shots will end the grain season progressively farther south through next week. The cold lingers into late October as a cold trough pushes southward from Canada. Some showers will dot the NC Midwest this weekend, but rain accumulations will be less than .25”. Better rains are slated for the S Plains early next week with totals of .25-1.00”. The main portion of the harvest is now upon the Midwest. The 10-day weather forecast shows the potential of the first meaningful rain in Argentina in northern Buenos Aires and southern Santa Fe of over 1.00”.
Live cattle and feeder cattle gave back to early gains on Thursday and closed weak. The cash trade did occur at $1 higher in the southern Plains, with Kansas/Texas Panhandle moving at $145. In the north, cattle were also $1 higher for the week at $147-148, with the dressed trade $2 higher at $232. Box beef had choice drifting $0.13 while select gained $1.60, putting the choice/select beef spread correcting from recent historic highs.