Turn-around Tuesday on schedule.
Turnaround Tuesday found its way into the grain trade overnight, as yesterday’s strong upside performance was checked with spot corn stumbling over $7.00 and wheat prices pushing new highs for the fall uptrend before catching another selling spree. Putin is still launching missiles into Ukraine but not as escalated as over the weekend.
The UN is pushing for Russia/Turkey to speed up grain vessel inspections with an estimated 2.1 MMTs of grain waiting to pass through Bosporus, the agreed checkpoint. Greater than 60 vessels are waiting to load green in Ukraine, while in the meantime, there is heavy congestion in Istanbul waiting for grain to move. The debate continues if Russia will allow an extension of the grain export corridor on November 22, with the UN trying to negotiate a one-your deal.
A renewal of a past transportation concern has arisen as yesterday, a majority of the 12,000 unionized railroad workers voted to reject the tentative labor agreement that was brokered in September by the Biden administration. The no vote by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters produces a new bargaining period that runs until November 19. This would be the first time a destructive strike could befall the US economy. This would be very disruptive at a time with low water on the Mississippi already causing considerable escalated freight rates. Having rail shut down at the peak of the export season would be detrimental to crop values.
Below-normal rainfall is the trend for the Central US, which maintains an active harvest while we have several cold shots and in the growing season progressively farther south this week. The cold temps appear this weekend, and a trough pushes southward from Canada early next week. That chill lingers into late October. The EU model advertises some needed rain for LA/AR. Corn is anticipated to pass the 50% harvesting mark by next week.
Yesterday’s cattle trade stumbled with the stock market and was led lower by feeder cattle as corn escalated in price. The negotiated fed cattle market was quiet, with Packer buyers again hoping to secure show lists lower amid falling margins. Market-ready fed cattle supplies are tight, and cattle feeders will be looking for $1-3 higher offerings this week. Box beef values did start lower yesterday, with the choice dropping $1.44 and select off $2.31. Slaughter margins fell to a new low for the year of $116/head and the lowest since February 2020. This would also be the lowest October estimated margins since 2015. The Packers have lost their leverage as the cattle supplies moving forward will start to tighten.