The US job market build for September was 263,000.
Wheat futures are leading morning strength from the overnight trade, as Reuters reports that the 2023 Ukrainian wheat production is expected to decline by 50%. High input costs, low prices, and a shortage of available fertilizer have farmers frustrated and opting to wait until spring to seed summer row crops next year. This helped reinflate wheat prices overnight after pulling off another standard $0.40 decline from attempts at new fall highs this week.
The US dollar is bolting sharply higher again after 7:30 a.m. with the jobs report showing a build of 263,000 jobs. This will prompt a three-quarter percent interest rate hike in the November meeting, and the stock market is moving sharply lower again this morning. Dollar strength will possibly circumvent grain price strength from advancing much farther than overnight accomplished.
Crude oil prices continued to surge higher overnight, providing support for the biofuel industry, while at the same time, Congress wants to legislatively produce punitive measures against the oil cartel. It’s highly unlikely they will succeed in any way of changing the cartel’s influence, the only way that occurs is to allow North American oil production to expand its capabilities domestically.
Weather continues to remain conducive for an active harvest with the generally dry Central US weather model through the next 10-12 days, frosts/freezing temperatures are occurring now through this weekend as far south as S Iowa and see Illinois. A warming trend develops next week with a warm West/cool East pattern holding. The extended range models for moisture over the Central Plains have rain being pushed southward into Texas/New Mexico.
Live and feeder cattle trade on Thursday closed mostly lower, while cash trade in the southern plains was $1 from last week at $144. Sales in Nebraska were quoted $1-2 higher at $146-147. Live cattle pricing is consolidating its recent price setback but will soon become a supply-lead bull market. Consumer resistance amid soaring inflation in other areas of the economy is a concern, but elevated beef prices have been felt for two years now. Transitioning from a demand lead market to a supply lead market is creating volatility.