The US dollar bounces off a trend line support.

After multiple days of heavy selling in the US dollar, support arrived at the 110.00 value referenced in yesterday’s Heartland video and mounted a near 1% advance. This universally reversed the higher trend in financials, metals, and commodities overnight and, except for crude oil, pushed everything lower, including grains. This reveals that the connectivity of currency to assets/commodities is quite sensitive presently.

OPEC is meeting and has yet to make its final announcement on what is widely believed to be a 1.5-2.0 million barrel per day cut in production, with the latest anticipation is in the coming at 1.8 MB/day the current $10.00 rally in crude oil since the low struck on September 26 has priced in the bulk of this lift. Anything less than 1.5 MB/day of cuts will see the oil market correct a bit, especially if the US dollar continues its bounce that got underway yesterday.

StoneX released their crop estimates yesterday, placing corn at 173.2 BPA, which is down by .7 BPA from their last month’s guess, while their soybean yield fell .5 BPA to 50.3. The September NASS corn yield was 172.5 BPA, and the soybeans were 50.5 BPA. StoneX is trending lower on its yields but always focuses on the final number rather than what the USDA may suggest.

The lower Mississippi River continues to have problems as dredging is needed to allow barges to pass in such operations that are not occurring fast enough to prevent backlogs and stalls. Traffic was halted yesterday near Lake Providence in LA, with 1600 barges waiting to pass. There is more dry weather that continues to be forecast for the Central US continues to create a traffic situation that will worsen. River cash basis bids are in fast retreat on the surging barge tariff rates.

The Midwest will have a trough of Canadian air dropping southward Thursday/Friday, producing the season’s first frost/freeze risk for the N Plains and the NC Midwest. Most crops are mature enough not to cause any widespread production or quality concerns. Mainly dry weather is anticipated over the next 12 days, with the 12-15 day forecast offering some rain chances for the southern and central plains.

The cattle trade performed poorly yesterday, while the performance of the outside markets was ignored. December cattle is back below the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which are technically negative. The negotiated fed cattle markets remained quiet, with Packer buyers having yet to show much interest in trading this week. Initial offers are remaining quoted at $2 higher than last week. Box beef values were higher again on Tuesday, with choice gaining $2.10 and select higher by $0.60. Compared to a year ago, the choice value is more than $40/CWT cheaper and select is lower by $54. December cattle look to rechallenge lows made just below 146.00.