Turn-around Tuesday gets help from outside markets.
Turn-around Tuesday kicked in heavy overnight, reversing a lot of the negative action from Monday’s trade. The US dollar sank in the morning hours when the Bank of Australia raised its interest rate less than expected. They only increased their interest rate by .25% to a rate of 2.6%, which is a nine-year peak. This throws back hope into the US that the Federal Reserve will also take a softening stance on future rate hikes, waiting on current interest rate increases to slow the economy. The CPI data on October 13 will give a vital clue on whether recent rate hikes have softened inflation.
The Ukrainian Ag ministry indicated that Ukraine is only seeded 1.1 Mil hectares of winter wheat as of October 1. This is down substantially from a rate of 3.1 Mil HA seated last year on the same date. Heavy rains and a lack of funds due to the war have farmers waiting on seeding wheat amid the hope that the war will end by the spring and can return to corn, sunflower, or other spring seed crops.
Crop production data estimates will start coming out with StoneX is expected to release its corn and soybean yields after the close today, and Markit (Informa) is anticipated on Thursday. Balance sheets for the corn continue to tighten on reduced production, and the question is how much the USDA will loosen them with softening demand via lowering exports and ethanol grind.
Central US weather forecasts are mostly conducive to accelerating harvest, while the 11-15 day period models hint at rainfall chances in the Plains. South American rain forecasts remain abundant for Brazil, with Northern Argentina anticipated to pick some moisture up by mid-October.
The cattle trade on Monday was mostly higher but did settle off early session highs. A firm start is anticipated this morning with the strong outside markets being supportive. The cash cattle trade was quiet to start the week, with be Packers having seen their margins fall sharply in recent weeks. Most anticipated this week’s cash trade outlook to be steady/firm. Box beef values did show choice gaining $2.19 while select was $1.18 higher. The percentage of fed cattle grading choice has been below last year and the five-year average in recent weeks. Last week’s kill set a new low for the year at 71.05% choice.