Grain futures rally with outside markets.
Grain futures are higher to start the day after a quarterly stocks report, as corn and wheat find renewed buying from Friday’s late spill in price, while soybeans open lower in found buying interest throughout the night. The question is, will the standard sell the grain trade the day after a crop report present itself yet on the reopening of the day session? Outside markets are higher, with crude oil gaining $4.00/barrel as OPEC is voicing almost certain they will cut production by 1 Mil barrels a day on October 5 with their next in-person meeting.
China has placed restrictions on corn starch exports to help combat rising inflationary pressures. The starch span has some considering that China has a shortage of corn. However, there is no evidence that China is preparing to import large amounts of feed grain anytime soon.
Russia is trying to work on a financing deal for its grain through EximBank to facilitate more significant exports. The discussions have just gotten underway, but insurance and finance are the biggest obstacles to the Russian grain trade. Russian wheat exports were only four MMTs in September and are lagging badly compared to prior years as sanctions have cut their export opportunities. Russia has a potentially record 100 MMT wheat crop.
The US harvest is accelerating amid below-normal rainfall trends through the next 10-12 days. A progressive weather pattern for North America produces the first frost/freeze risk for the upper Midwest late this week, with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Warming occurs after that. There are hints in the extended range 10-14 day forecast of improved rain chances for the southern plains. Rains continue in Brazil while Argentina continues to wait for improved chances, Argentina has just light chances of showers through October 13.
Live cattle trade stumble last week with a steady-firmer outlook anticipated this morning with the improved outside markets. Cash trade last week was primarily steady, while box beef values were mixed, the choice cutout value remained under pressure and was down $4.88 on the week. Select values were firm and gained $0.82 for the week, offering a hint of a seasonal low building. Live cattle are working on technical support/Fibonacci values that are helping to score what would be a seasonal low now through next week.