USDA crop report out at 11:00 a.m. CT today.
Grain futures bounced overnight, as the end of the month and end of the quarter short covering from what has been mostly prominent selling since the September 11 crop report, along with Putin speaking this morning ahead of his officially signing a decree annexing the captured territory of Ukraine. The unknown is how the Russians will react to any new military action if fired upon the Eastern Ukrainian land now that it has become part of Mother Russia. This carries headline risk through the weekend as to the extent of any escalation of what is already a seven-month war. Does Ukraine want to recapture the seeds territory with influence from Western nations?
China now starts its week-long Autumn Festival Holiday, which means Chinese grain interest in soybeans or corn will be significantly reduced for the next week.
OPEC+ members are getting ready for their October 5 meeting and discussing a .5-1.0 Mil barrels per day cut in production to underpin will prices. The OPEC meeting will be occurring as world energy prices have slumped on faltering rule demand due to rising interest rates in the weakening of global economies such as China due to Covid lockdowns that look to be ongoing into March 2023.
The French corn harvest has now advanced to just past 50%, complete with reported yields being below expectations due to their dire drought throughout the summer. The EU will be the world’s largest corn importer this year at 22-24 MMTs.
The Central US forecast has dry and warming weather for the next 7-9 days while cool Canadian air lingers across the E Midwest for another 48 hours and lows in the 40s. The Western US Ridge produces dry weather and warming temperatures next week. There are hints of some more progressive weather patterns thereafter. Central US harvest operations will be active next week while rain is still desperately needed across the Plains. In South America, soybean planting moves ahead in Brazil with adequate rainfall, while the Argentine drought deepens with plantings season there just ahead.
The live cattle trade turned sharply higher yesterday after numerous days of liquidation and closed near the day’s highs. A firm outlook is anticipated this morning with hogs’ firm from a friendly Hogs and Pigs Report released yesterday afternoon. Cash cattle markets in the Plains and Western Midwest were quiet on Thursday following active trade early in the week. Trends remain steady with live cattle sales in the South at $143 and $144-145 across Northern Plains and IA/MN.