Turn-around Tuesday is on time.
After four days of heavy selling in the stock index markets along with commodities from the Federal Reserve’s .75% interest rate hike last week, Turn-around Tuesday is creating a recovery bounce on valuations. The US dollar has softened today and is trading down 1% from yesterday’s high. It is unlikely the US dollar has topped yet, nor stock futures have bottomed either. The next interest rate hike from the Fed will come on November 2.
The NASS yesterday reported that the corn harvest reached 12%, and soybeans are at 8%, which is behind the estimates for yesterday’s numbers. Early yield results are variable, which will likely confirm that the US corn yield is closer to 170 BPA or possibly lower. The average trade estimates for this coming September 1 stocks data show corn at 1,512 Mil Bu, soybeans at 242 Mil Bu, and wheat at 1,776 Mil Bu. The 2021/22 US ending stocks for corn are estimated at 1 525, soybeans 245 Mil Bu with the trade looking for some stock reductions. They were an area they could of we should've bought yesterday but
Ukraine is seeking to make grain trade routes into the EU permanent due to the potential that Russia will seek to close the export corridor by not extending the agreement on November 22. Presently Zelinskiy discussed a pipeline for veg oil and doubling truck size fleets to move grain from Western Ukraine into Europe. Ukraine is concerned that the future of the Safe Grain Corridor is in jeopardy.
Hurricane Ion will move across W Florida early Thursday, which will have temps cool in the E Midwest with a chance of frosty temps in WI. Otherwise, there is no sign of harvest delaying rains through October 8 in the Midwest. Warm weather returns in the 6-10 day period as the US harvest be the head. The Plains and western US drought continue to worsen amid constant below-normal rains.
Live cattle started the week with another lower trade but is anticipated open steady better, with outside markets showing marked improvement from yesterday. December cattle futures fell back to support, as witnessed by the 200-day moving average Monday. The early week cash trade outlook is anticipated to be steady. Box beef values were sharply mixed on Monday, with choice slipping $0.79 while select jumped $4.04. We are in the seasonal window when boxed beef prices bottom now through October 15.