The rail strike appears to be averted.
Grain futures are mixed coming into the Thursday morning session, with support coming from a tentative deal with labor unions and railroad owners to avert a potential strike Friday morning at midnight. This is a relief to the grain trade, with harvest just getting underway.
The NOPA will release their August crush data at 11:00 a.m. today with the anticipated crush rate at 165-166 Mil Bu and a slight build in oil stocks. Weekly export sales data had corn for September 1 at 32.1 Mil Bu, a marketing year high, while September 8 was at 23 MB. Soybeans through September 1 were 53.9 M BL marketing year high, with September 8 at 31 Mil Bu. Wheat exports through September 1 were 7.1 Mil Bu, and September 8 was 8 Mil Bu.
The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday approved the Taiwan Security Act of 2022, which sharply elevates military aid to Taiwan to deter an invasion by China. The bill was slammed overnight by the Chinese government as breaking the US pledge on its One China Policy. Whether it’s the Biden Administration’s proposed new sanctions on China if they invade or new congressional legislation, the politics between US/China continue to worsen, adversely impacting trade.
Central US weather maintains a high-pressure Ridge pattern into the late month. There will be a few showers across the N and C Plains on Friday and the weekend with totals of just.1-.6”. Otherwise, the forecast is perfect for the onset of harvest as the high-pressure Ridge produces a lengthy period of above-normal temperatures and limited Midwest rainfall. Again, no evidence of any Gulf hurricanes into late September that produced any concerns for the Gulf state and Delta crops.
Live cattle struggled yesterday with the lower trade, while feeder cattle maintained strength. A mixed outlook is offered for early trade today. The cash trade on Wednesday was quoted at $226-227 unaddressed bases in Nebraska, which was near steady with last week. Light trade in IA/MN region was quoted at $143, which was $1 lower than a week ago. The seasonal beef and cattle price trend remain steady to softer in September, circumventing the recent price rise that was reversed back due to extreme weakness in the stock market and the aggression of the Fed in upcoming meetings that can create a recession.