September USDA crop report out today at 11:00 AM CT.
Grain prices had a two-sided price range overnight, as weakness at the start of the session was tied to the US railroad strike that could occur on September 17 unless the US government orders a cooling-off period for 30-days. Overnight strength returned as the US dollar tumbled again, losing $0.85 overnight to 107.89. With the USDA crop report out today at 11:00 a.m. CT, the grain trade firmed up to trade higher in the early morning hours before again tipping mixed ahead of the morning close.
The NASS will release its first field survey yield data and updated planted/harvested acres based on the FSA Farm Certification. Also, WASDA will update world crop production and release new US/world balance sheets. This report will produce volatility, given the tightness of supplies. China is on holiday and will not react to the data until Tuesday.
In the coming days, Russian Pres. Putin and Turkish Pres. Erdogan Safe Grain Corridor. As Ukraine pushes Russia back in the Donbas region via a strong military offensive, Putin will see little benefit in keeping the corridor open. Any changes to the corridor agreement, the UN will likely not accept a selective ban on grain exports. This could cause the corridor to close on November 22, which is 120 days after the July signing.
For the second Friday in a row, cattle futures posted a strong daily gain, with feeder cattle futures also firm despite the higher feed grain pricing. A steady outlook is offered for early trade today, with the September USDA crop report producing a volatile response to the grain markets in the bleed back into the feeder cattle trade. Last week the choice cutout was down $2.16 and select fell $3.85.
Seasonally, beef values trend lower in September, but the choice cutout value has held in a $20 range for most of the year. Support in the choice value is expected under $255/CWT. Last week spot live cattle had finished at their highest level since 2015. Deferred live cattle are anticipated to target new contract highs.