The risk-off trade is in play, with the US dollar tumbling 1% overnight.

Grain futures recovered overnight after absorbing heavy selling from Wednesday mornings price rise to an 11-week high for corn, while on Thursday, soybeans challenged their mid-August lows and held, prompting a recovery to above the 200-day MA. Short covering is the feature with the anticipation that the USDA’s September Crop Report could be friendly for corn yields along with an anticipated slight reduction in the soybean yields amid the adverse August weather. The US dollar stumbled sharply overnight, down 1.04 at 108.42, prompting a risk-off attitude across the commodity complexes and stock indexes.

Russia continues to show disdain for the Ukraine Grain Export Corridor Deal with an extension of the pack in November, depending on how it will be implemented in the future. Russia does not want Ukraine’s grain flowing to the Western nations that are imposing sanctions on Russia. Putin and Turkish Pres. Erdogan are set to meet early next week to discuss this issue in Kazakhstan. Russia claimed that Ukrainian grain is not going to the world’s impoverished nations as the UN had been bemoaning in the spring.

French corn crop ratings continue to decline, off another 2% from last week to 43% GD/EX. Early yields have been disappointing, with an estimated 6% of the new crop in the South now cut. Where they’ve started, French corn yields have been averaging 64-73 BPA, down some 30-40% from average due to the worst drought in France in decades.

The Central US weather offers variable temperatures and weekend chances for rainfall as a more progressive pattern evolves. No Midwest frost/freeze risk is noted into September 22. Rains for most of the Midwest/E Plains as weekend have the potential of.25-1.00”. A drier flow returns, which will offer the start of a more active early harvest next week. The western and southern plains need rain to start active winter wheat seeding.

Cattle futures were lower yesterday for the second day in a row but recovered late in the session, offering a mixed start for today. The cash trade was quoted at $1 higher across the Texas Panhandle into Kansas, with cattle selling for $141. Cattle in Nebraska were steady to $2 lower at $142-144 on a live basis, with the dressed trade $3 lower at $226-229. Box beef values did plunge on Thursday, with choice falling $3.33 in the select declining $1.47.

The beef cow slaughter rate is slowing, and August was under 75,000 head every week during the month. Cumulative slaughter of 2.6 Mil head is 114% of last year and record large. Compared to the January 1 inventory report, 8.6% of the herd has been slaughtered, while the heifer slaughter data does not include any retention.