Grain prices trade sharply two-sided overnight.
Grain futures had seen corn and wheat rise as much as a dime overnight, while soybeans struggled early in the night session and moved lower throughout the evening. Argentine farmers received a bonus from their government on Sunday with an incentive to sell soybeans at 200 pesos/MT versus the official daily rate, which starts at 140 pesos today. The seller’s bonus is expected to help move extra soybeans to export and processor venues.
Argentine farmers have been hoarding soybeans due to the inflation rates running at an estimated 80% year-over-year. This government bonus is offered through September on a push for hard currency for US dollars. The Argentine central bank is expected to hike its lending rate to 75% this week to further drain liquidity from its banking system. Such lending rates force Argentine farmers to self-finance their crop inputs in the coming month and take advantage of the cash sale.
World crop supplies lean friendly to pricing, but the push and pull of outside economic factors, such as Chinese lockdowns and potential Ukraine export increase, along with USDA’s September 12 crop production report that may or may not incorporate FSA farm certification data. Last year they did include the data in September, but there is the consideration that it may occur this year in October.
Also overshadowing grains is the US dollar is again retesting its 20-year high tag last week, which is creating weaker demand concerns. The important Labor Department inflation data will be released on September 13, with the central bank holding its next policy meeting for an interest rate hike on September 20-22. The market is starting to anticipate a rate hike of .75%.
Dry weather continues to hold across the Western and Central US, with a pattern change to occur after September 14th. This should produce a more normal rainfall pattern and cooler temperatures while no frost risk is anticipated into September 20. Gulf hurricanes remain absent for now, while activity has dramatically increased in the Atlantic with storms to monitor. The void of rain across W Midwest/Plains continues to drain soil moisture which is stressing soybeans/corn. E Midwest crops have enough soil moisture to make it to maturity.
Live cattle and feeder cattle enjoyed a strong recovery on Friday with the firm outlook offered for this morning. September is a slow month for beef demand seasonally in cattle/beef prices tend to decline still, however, Friday’s strong technical close may indicate a change in times. Cash cattle trade last week was quoted at $141 in the South, which was $1 lower than the previous week, while Nebraska sold $1-3 lower at $143-145. Dressed trade was $5 lower at $228. Choice box beef values fell $3.34 for the week while select was down $0.18. Estimated slaughter margins declined to $226/head. Upward technical trends continue to hold on the live cattle charts, suggesting the bull market is still solidly in place. Reduce slaughter numbers remain in the future that will project live cattle February to challenge $160.