Further strength experienced in overnight trading.
Grain futures pushed higher again overnight on technical follow-through momentum as prior resistance points on the corn and soybean charts were overcome. Also, the Pro Farmer tour pegged the Indiana corn yield at 177.8 BPA, compared to the 3-year average at 178.2 and last year at 193.4 BPA. The soybean crop had pod counts at 1,116 versus the 3-year average of 1,148. Indiana is looking at an average corn crop was soybean yield potential depending on late-season weather. Nebraska ended up with a reported yield of 158.5 BPA versus the 3-year average of 176.7 BPA and last year at 182.3 BPA. The soybean pod counts were 1,063 versus the 3-year average at 1,245 in a 3’ by 3’ square.
The Pro Farmer tour should now start finding improved yield potential as the role into Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois to conclude the four-day crop tour on Thursday. This could bring about a short-term stalling high as the market consolidates recent gains and absorbs the remainder of old crop selling and more new crop sales interest. The transition from old to new crop will produce sharp declines in spot basis bids as harvest is just weeks away from starting in the S Midwest. Spot basis bids are already beginning to drop as of late yesterday on the futures rallies, with some being reported steady to down $0.20 on corn and soybeans and shifting bids against November.
Yesterday Egypt purchased directly from Russia 240,000 MTs of wheat and reported a price of $368/MT. This is well down from Egypt’s last purchase, and sources suggest there are negotiations to include additional tonnages. Egypt secured the Russian wheat into November 10, and Russian exporters continue to seek demand amid the record 2022 wheat harvest, which is privately pegged as large as 97 MMTs.
Compared to a year ago, at this time, November soybeans were trading at $13.00/Bu, and December corn was at $5.50/bu. So current futures offerings carry considerable premium with similar ending stock values. A longer-term bull market is developing, but near-term strength may pause as the Pro Farmer tour finishes into a better crop in the Midwest.
The Central US forecast maintains the broad Ridge/Trough pattern holding across the US, which keeps meaningful rainfall chances confined to the Gulf states this week. Lite showers will fall across the Dakota with central US rains limited. A Ridge riding storm system will drop southward into the E Plains/W Midwest on Sunday/Monday, producing showers/storms of .5-2.00” across IA, MN, SD, and MO. Podding soybeans will benefit from the moisture. Additional light showers are noted in the extended 11-15 day period.
Cattle traded mixed yesterday, closing steady, while feeder cattle were under pressure on Tuesday’s sharp feed grain rally. The cash cattle trade was slow on light demand. Cattle in the southern plains sold $1 higher for the week at $142. Light trade was quoted in the IA/MN region at $148, which was steady to $1 lower than last week. Similar trends look to continue through Friday.