Grain pricing firms overnight from a weak start.
Grain prices opened lower Sunday night across the board but quickly found buying interest as China’s Central Bank lowered its lending rate by 15 basis points. This prompted buying in the grain trade as China is looking to shore up its economy after all of the recent lockdowns. There is also concern over Ukraine’s nuclear power plant which is controlled by Russia and being used as military shield. There is no leakage of any radiation, but it is been closely monitored.
September grain contracts remain well supported due to their sharp discount to the cash markets as we head towards first notice day next week Wednesday. The Gulf State corn and soybean harvest is being delayed amid the large forecasted rainfalls throughout the South.
Wheat, corn & sunoil exports are improving out of Ukraine’s grain export corner with the cash markets reflecting weakness in order to afford costly ships to come into the area. Russian 11.5% wheat is offered at $260/MT which is down $5/MT from Friday. Ukrainian wheat and corn offers are also in retreat which will be an albatross to the CBOT rallies.
FSA is expected to releases delayed crop certification and prevent plant data at 2:00 p.m. CT today. The FSA data was to be released on August 12 following USDA crop report. FSA data is used to true up the NASS June 30 final seeded acres.
Look for a choppy week as the Pro Farmer crop tour gets underway today with varied yields being found in the West. As tweets are released it will cause abrupt intraday movements either higher or lower. Outside markets are risk off today with heavy losses in the equity markets. The US interest rate hike will be discussed as the Federal Reserve members are meeting in Jackson Hole this week, with an anticipated .5-.75% rate hike in late September.
Cattle futures are called softer to start the session for this week, as the August Cattle on Feed report reported a marketing rate of 96% (97% expected) and a placement rate of 102% (98.5% expected) while the on-feed inventory was right at market expectations of 101% of last year. With live cattle prices having recently challenged prior highs, weakness could develop today with outside markets lower.