Grains are again lower this morning.
Grain futures are lower again today but still above Monday’s lows. Crop ratings declined as expected yesterday and are anticipated to stabilize and possibly improve into next week with the improved moisture and cooler temps for the W Midwest. Also, the US dollar is stronger again for the third day in a row, recovering almost half of its losses from the July high in the past three sessions. Seasonal selling pressures are starting the bear with the unloading of the remaining old crop and the tendency for grain prices to decline into early September.
The Black Sea corridor remains active with vessel movement compared to two weeks ago. Additional vessels have left Ukrainian ports, with some ships headed to Africa carrying newly loaded wheat supplies. Five ships are leaving today.
The Pro Farmer tour gets underway next Monday, August 22, which will provide the first real look at the details of corn pollination and soybean plant populations. Regional results are anticipated to vary widely, but the crop tours do provide some initial guidance to the national yield prospects.
The European and GFS weather models agree that weather over the next 10 days will see a pattern of non-threatening temps following heavy rainfall in SW Iowa into Missouri as soil moisture will stabilize by midweek. A lengthy period of dryness does resume across the Central and Northern Plains and the bulk of the Midwest into the final days of August. There is a lack of threatening heat.
Monday was a lower day for cattle futures, with a steady opening offered today. Cash cattle markets were also quiet, but the early week outlook remains firm. Box beef values gained on Monday with choice higher by $1.09 and select up $0.13. The feeder cattle index was higher by $0.76 to $179.04. October live cattle stalled at the gap created at the April cattle on feed report and is in retreat. Significant support is 141.50-142.50. December live cattle have support at 148.50-148.75 if the early August support just under Monday’s close gives way.