Grains are mixed into today's NASS data.
Grain futures are mixed ahead of today’s NASS yield data at 11:00 a.m., where row crops will be survey-based, while the spring wheat crop will be from collecting actual yield data from enumerators. Also, the NASS will update the resurvey results of the Northern Plains crops that were affected due to cool/wet spring weather. We will also see at noon the US Farm Service Agency update on US Certified and Prevented Plant acres as of August 1.
If the USDA produces a bearish corn data number, it'll be because trendline yields would have been over 180 BPA this year, and they had already lowered it in the spring to 177 due to the wet planting weather, matching last year's yield.
Overnight French corn GD/EX ratings plummeted last week to 53%, down 10% due to their ongoing drought. The EU crops have been enduring one of the worst droughts in decades, and it will be interesting to see how the USDA responds to the European crop, which has been held at 68 MMTs, while estimates indicate a crop under 56 MMTs from prominent sources. The Rhine River is at a record low, hampering the transport of grain and products.
The EU and GFS models generally agree on the Central US upcoming weather pattern. A high-pressure Ridge holds across CO/KS/NE for another 4-5 days before retrograding West and producing a broad Ridge/Trough pattern. The western US Ridge will bring rain chances back for the Plains/the Upper Midwest next Tuesday/Thursday on Ridge riding storms. This has developed as a consistent forecast over the past 4-5 days. This Ridge holding across Western through the US will produce near to below normal temperatures for the Midwest and Eastern US next week. The filling crops will welcome the cooler temps in these areas.
Live cattle were higher yesterday while feeder cattle were softer on the trade, a mixed outlook is offered for early trade today. Cash cattle prices did move higher for the week while feeder cattle moved inversely to the corn market and will be noting the results of today’s USDA reports. The cash cattle trade moved higher, with cattle in Kansas and Texas selling $4-5 higher from last week at $140; Nebraska trade this week has been from $144-148. Box beef values were mainly mixed, with choice down $0.13 and select gaining $0.38. Heifer slaughter remains proportionally elevated through July 30, which shows 39% of the Fed cattle supply was heifers. That’s up 36.1% from last year and 35.7% above the 10-year average. It’s also the highest for late July since 1988. 39% of the kill year to date has been heifers which is the most since 2002.