This morning's grain trade is mixed.

Grains this morning are mixed on Turnaround Tuesday, while gold continues to recover recent losses sharply and is up $71 at 3394, as the US dollar again retreats from the 100.00 valuation. The US dollar has maintained a weak stance since the start of the year, which has supported corn and soybean exports. The WASDE report next Monday will need to reflect this in its figures. Recall that in February, WASDE decided not to adjust export estimates due to tariffs being applied, fearing that grain exports would decline. That did not happen; in fact, exports for corn, soybeans, and soybean oil have exceeded expectations by a significant margin.

China is finally acknowledging the challenges in its northern regions, which are affecting wheat yields. This prompted a slight lift in domestic values this morning as China’s Henan province issued weather warnings. Hot and dry winds are forecast to damage crops during the reproductive phase of their growth cycle. Temperatures are climbing into the mid-90s, and low soil moisture is reducing yields. It is possible this situation could make China a sizable wheat importer later in 2025.

The trade continues to overlook comments from the Trump administration, but new trade deals are in progress, and some announcements are expected soon. Even Secretary of Agriculture Rollins indicated late Monday that she is optimistic about the ongoing discussions, as representatives from 100 countries are currently working on these agreements. The grain trade is weary of rumors and is waiting for a concrete deal to be announced to assess how its structure might immediately impact US agricultural export demand.

Weather forecasts, which have been very favorable for early planting, are now being reconsidered as a potential problem if moisture does not return. The Northern Plains are warm and dry and are expected to reach the lower to mid-90s later this week. A strong high pressure ridge continues to dominate the North Central US and the Canadian Prairies. This persistent dryness is becoming a concern for the northern Plains region. Heat is also intensifying in the Canadian Prairies, where temperatures in the 90s are becoming common. A dry pattern is emerging across the upper Midwest and northern Plains, which could lead to the first significant weather market development by the end of May.

Yesterday, another day of contract highs was seen for both live and feeder cattle, while the cash feeder index moved in the opposite direction. The cash feeder index fell by $2.98 to $293.40. It was reported that last week’s five-area average negotiated live price rose by $5 for the week to $221, with the average dressed price increasing by $8 to $349. Meanwhile, live data shows that Packers bought 99,206 head on a negotiated basis, with 70,046 head scheduled for immediate to 14-day delivery, and the remaining 29,216 head for 15 to 30-day delivery. Last week’s sales volume was the largest since March 2024 and the second largest since October 2023. Choice box beef rose by $0.67 yesterday, while Select increased by $2.72.

Yesterday, Tyson reported its earnings after the market closed. During the conference call, the CEO stated that heifer retention is as high as 4 percent, which explains the tight supply of slaughter cattle compared to USDA numbers. He noted that, fortunately, heavy weights have helped manage this tight situation. Typically, these heavier cattle would be discounted, but they are now being sold due to demand. If Tyson is even partially correct in its assessment of significant heifer retention, then the fall 2026 calf crop could face considerably lower values than we are seeing today.