The grain trade is starting firmer this morning, corn having good export sales.

This morning’s grain trade is steady and firm, with corn building on its recovery from the lows seen on the first notice day yesterday. Export sales reported a solid 1 million metric tons, continuing to outpace USDA expectations, prompting adjustments to export figures and carryout in next week’s WASDE crop report. This morning, 164 contracts of soybean oil were delivered, while soybean meal saw 563 contracts.

China has reported that the US reached out through several channels to initiate trade talks. This may be China’s way of saving face by framing the talks as just beginning, even though the Trump administration has stated for a week that discussions have been ongoing. Either way, dialogue has started, and many anticipate it could lead to tariffs being addressed sooner rather than later, as China’s economy is sharply declining and the US needs certain Chinese products.

The US dollar has strengthened since April 21, while the gold market has fallen sharply. This may indicate that actual trade improvements are on the horizon, with rumored deals becoming reality. By yesterday’s close and in this morning’s trade, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had erased all losses from April.

Weather forecasts for the next 10 days show meaningful rainfall in the southern plains, with the Central and Eastern Midwest expected to receive between 0.25 and 1.50 inches of rain over the next 36 to 48 hours. Areas of southwest Russia are forecast to receive scattered showers during what has otherwise been a mostly dry and warm spring as the wheat crop develops. Frost continues across Russia and northeastern Europe. Meanwhile, drought persists in China, gripping the region through the next 10-day forecast period with high temperatures.

Live and feeder cattle prices closed lower yesterday, with June cattle producing an outside-day lower pattern. The market traded above the previous day’s high before falling below and closing lower, signaling a potential loss of recent momentum. Light sales in the North were quoted at $340 to $350, which was steady to $10 higher for the week. In the South, sales started at $214, $2 higher on the week, and reached as high as $218 in late afternoon trading. Boxed beef prices corrected, with choice down $2.95 and select $1.80 lower. This bull market cycle has lasted 59 months, matching the length of the previous cattle cycle. Moving forward, it is not uncommon for the cash trade to hold a $10 premium to the June contract as the cash trade works through May.