Turn-around Tuesday is yet to develop.

The grain trade is softer this morning as volume is notably dropping off as we get to the end of the month with the Stocks and Acreage Intentions report on March 31 and Trump’s tariff date of April 2. When volume declines, volatility can increase, but selling appears to be the primary focus. As of yesterday, open interest showed a gain of 6,293 contracts, with managed money now holding an even larger net short position of 90,000 contracts in Chicago. This is a precarious position to be in, given that US SRW wheat, the cheapest wheat in the world which, favors Latin American countries, and HRW wheat faces a weather threat.

Russia, Ukraine, and the US continue to discuss a ceasefire at a peace meeting today in Saudi Arabia. Progress is reported to be slow, with Russia seeking additional concessions for the 30-day cease-fire on Black Sea ocean freight. Russia is demanding that their grain and fertilizer be allowed to flow freely, with sanctions dropped on cargo funding. Ukraine and Russia's old crop corn and wheat carryouts are not abundant, and opening up the Black Sea grain movement does not increase grain availability until later this year after the new crop is in place.

Plains weather forecast for the next 7-8 days remains dry with warming temperatures that add to the stress on the HRW wheat crop. There is a possibility of showers next week, but none of the rain looks to be heavy, and not all the weather models agree. The GFS/Canadian models continue to predict drought conditions across the Plains, accompanied by high temperatures in the 80s and 90s. The EU model has showers across the Eastern Plains this weekend, with some better chance of improvement late next week. Trade always works with the one that brings the chance of rain to the marketplace.

The Black Sea weather forecast indicates improved shower chances within the 7-10 day window, with totals ranging from 0.25 to 1.25 inches expected to develop for Ukraine and southwest Russia. The rain is desperately needed after the snowless winter and the seasonally warm temperatures. The upcoming Black Sea rain showers do not seem to change the overall dry pattern but rather an interlude of rain. As it can always rain during a drought, it just never rains enough.

After Friday's outside-day down (higher high than the previous day, lower low, and lower close than the previous day), cattle futures again put in a negative technical session. A higher start was met with a low-end close, confirming technical damage was authentic on Friday. Cash cattle markets in the Plains will not likely see activity until the last half of this week. Last week, the Packers bought 94,956 head on a negotiated basis. This was the largest weekly volume of the year, as cash prices reached a record high. Packers purchased 83,685 head for 1-14 day delivery and 11,271 head for 15-30 day delivery.

The two poor technical closes over the last two days at record prices can potentially set up a technical correction in the futures trade. With index funds having made massive purchases over the past two weeks, this liquidation can cause a deeper correction in the June contract to develop. Seasonally, June is delayed due to a typically negative price trend over the next 30 days. A close under 201 on June cattle then sets up the potential for a decline into the 192-195 range. A close below 283 for May feeder cattle targets 275 for a 4th wave correction.