Weather forecasts remain dry for HRW despite yesterday’s forecast of hints of moisture in the long-term models.

Two-sided overnight trading ended with a mixed tone to start the last trading day of the week. April options against the May grain contracts expire today, and there is a large contingency of over 6000 puts and calls at the 470 value for May corn. This could cause May corn to stall and hold around 470 for the session.

The Plains forecast for the next two weeks has returned to drier, keeping with the existing weather trend. Rain in central and southern plains is needed for summer row crops and developing winter wheat. Yesterday, there was a forecast for hints of some needed rain across the Plains during the 11-15 day window, but that has been reduced today. Meanwhile, the Black Sea weather forecast calls for acute dryness and warming temperatures, with stress developing in Ukraine/SW Russian winter grains. This area endured a snowless winter, and the spring weather forecast in the middle of April is keeping the arid trend. As we enter April, concerns will develop for Black Sea wheat and other winter grain crops.

This afternoon, the weekly COT report will be released. As we head into the end of the month and quarter, we will watch to see what index funds have done with their short positions in wheat and their long positions in corn. March 31 is the Quarterly Stocks and Seeding Intentions report, which is known for volatility. On a scale of 1 to 10 for volatility, the March 31 and June 30 reports are scored at 11.

Central Plain's dryness is forecasted to worsen going into April, which will allow corn seeding to advance across the Delta. Central Plains heat will expand northward into the Dakotas, while cooler weather will be experienced in the Eastern region of the US under a Ridge/trough pattern. Rain changes for the Black Sea over the next two weeks show minimal activity along with above-normal temperatures.

Another sharply higher session on Thursday for live and feeder cattle trading, with April live cattle trading above the January high while all live cattle contracts scored new historic contract high prices. The cash feeder index jumped to a record $285.94. March feeders are ahead of the cash index, anticipating the rising values that have been experienced this week. Cash markets have not traded, pushing the business to possibly after the COF report today at 2 PM. Asking prices in the South are quoted anywhere from $207-210, which would be $4-7 higher than last week.

The March Livestock Slaughter report shows the February cattle kill at 86% of January and 89% of a year ago, with two fewer working days than January and one less than last year. It was a small stairway slaughter since 2016 and the fourth lowest on record. The average carcass weight was 40 pounds heavier than a year ago at 874 pounds, and beef production was 93% of year ago. January-February production was at a 5-year low.