Corn is higher on strong exports while wheat disappoints.

This morning, the grain trade has corn higher while soybeans and wheat relax. Export sales data out this morning had corn at 1.5 MMTs, near the high end of expectations. The wheat trade had seen cancellations in the old crop status of seven -248,000 MTs, while the new crop was just shy of 500,000 MTs. Soybean meal was as expected at 352,600 MTs.

Data from this morning for China shows the importation of 9.13 MMTs of US beans during January-February, which was an 84% increase over last year. China pushed forward its US soy purchases and loadings in the fear of the Trump tariffs. China’s total imports of soybeans in the first two months of 2025 amounted to 13.61 MMTs, up 4% from 2024. China is anticipated to import 10 one-103 MMTs of world beans in the 2024/25 crop year, which is well off of last year’s 112 MMT total.

The March 31 Stocks and Seeding Intentions report is now just seven trading sessions away, along with Trump’s reciprocal tariffs to be announced on April 2. The comment period for the USTR’s proposed port fees against Chinese vessels ends March 26. It’s not known whether the proposed Chinese vessel fees will be activated during the summer or Pres. Trump is using the proposal as a negotiating chip against China when trade talks hopefully resume this summer.

Despite some minor moisture that worked through Kansas during the recent storm, most moisture was mostly under .10 across the majority of the state. The forecast remains arid for the next 10 days, while forecast models again argue in the 11-15 day window for potential moisture. An arid weather trend will persist across the Plains in mid-April. Similarly, Black Sea crops are enduring a deepening drought after snow this winter, and temperatures hold above normal levels, with winter grain now coming out of dormancy.

A powerful lift in cattle futures again on Wednesday, with a firm start expected this morning. Anticipation of a higher cash trade this week had April live cattle pushing to near 207 before settling at 206.55. All cattle contracts set new contract highs yesterday, except April. The cash feeder index picked up $0.54 to a record high of $284.65. Asking prices in the South are now quoted at $ 207, which will be a gain of $4 over last week. Box beef values were mixed on Wednesday, with the choice jumping $6.29 to $ 329.61, while select was off $0.55 at $308.68.

Friday’s Cattle on Feed report for February anticipates a Marketing rate of 92% compared to a year ago, Placements of 86%, and an On-Feed number of 98%. If realized, the placement rate would be the lowest since 2015 and the smallest March 1 inventory since 2017. The report is bullish but is also currently being reflected in the marketplace. It’s possible we may see hedging interest pick up again ahead of the report on Thursday/Friday, especially with LRP’s.