The grain trade relaxes midweek.

Grain futures are softer across the board this morning, consistent with early-week strength that gets checked midweek. The HRW wheat belt will be arid for the next 10 days, while forecast models are at odds with playing with moisture potential forecast in the 11-15 day window. This will be the norm as we enter summer, as long-term models always try to find moisture.

The Plains forecast has a blizzard across N Kansas/Nebraska to the NW Midwest, which will not produce meaningful moisture for the HRW wheat area. Snow chances improve over E Nebraska and into N Iowa/Southern Minnesota. The Plains drought looks to worsen into early April amid warm temperatures and limited rainfall.

Turkey has announced a 1 MMT corn import quota through June to help limit surging feed grain prices and food inflation. Last July, Turkey banned corn and wheat imports to benefit its domestic producers. However, the Turkish lira has fallen to a historic low of 41 to 1 US dollar this morning as the popular Istanbul Mayor was arrested on charges of terrorism and organized crime. The mayor was a strong challenger to the current Turkish Pres. Erdogan.

Today, the FED (central bank) concludes its March meeting at 1:00 p.m. CT and is anticipated to hold interest rates steady. The communiqué they release at 1:30 on the US economy will be closely followed to determine interest rate potentials later this year. Currently, the expectation is for the Fed to cut interest rates at least two times later this year on anticipated recessionary fears, mainly due to so many government-related and government jobs being eliminated.

Along with the US Plains, there is limited rainfall in Ukraine and SW Russian wheat, where drought worries are broadening. Warmth will persist across the Black Sea and Eastern Europe well into early April.

After another early push higher Tuesday morning, the cattle trade did soften during the session but came back and settled mixed. April cattle did produce its best close since the late January high. Meanwhile, June cattle stopped short of its contract highs and finished near 201. Packers have yet to show any interest in negotiated cash trade this week, while asking prices in the South are quoted at $205, up $2 for the week. The outlook is anticipated to be higher this week. Meanwhile, your morning box beef values marked another day of gains, with Choice picking up $2.16 and Select being higher by $1.33. The choice rib primal gained $14 on Tuesday to $518/CWT, the highest since early January.