Grains trade firm/higher overnight on a weak US dollar and 301 actions.

A firmer grain trade greets the start of the week, as the US dollar plummets to its lowest level since March 2022, on talk that the President. Trump is looking for ways to release the President. Powell from being chairman of the Federal Reserve. Grain prices also found their lift on the relief that the USTR announced its 301 actions against Chinese vessels, following the tax beginning on October 14. However, the fact that the tax only applies to Chinese/made vessels, which are estimated to be just under 11% of the global fleet, was excluded. This means the bulk carriers will be impacted very little.

Europe and much of Asia are off today for Easter Monday, which has diminished trade volume. It will be interesting to see if overnight gains are maintained during the day session. What has become commonplace since late February is that overnight strength is quickly sold during the day session. Holding overnight gains and adding to them today will be a big litmus test of the strength of the grain trade.
Seasonally, we could see a lift in grain prices in the opening of May.

This week, an active weather pattern will occur across the Central US with storms passing to the Plains, W Midwest, and Delta, producing 1-3.50″ of rainfall accumulations. The heaviest totals are focused on KS, NE, IA, MN, WI, TX, and LA. The rain will slow seeding progress but will help build soil moisture restoration. Three storm systems are forecasted for the next 10 days with near-normal rainfall in the 11-15 day period. Meanwhile, areas of drought continue in the Black Sea region along with the north China plains, with below normal precipitation forecasted for the next 2-3 weeks, along with rising temperatures. If index funds flinch on their massive, short trade, this could produce upside leadership in wheat.

Live cattle futures had a strong week, but this morning have a steady soft opening. Outside influences of the sharply lower stock market, and a COF report that could be considered slightly negative on placements for feeder cattle, could prompt a weak start. Last week, live sales in the north were priced $4-5 higher for the week at $212-213, while live sales in the South were up $6 at $210. Cattle slaughter was 12,000 head higher at 576,000 head, and was 42,000 head later than a year ago. This was partially due to the different Good Friday and Easter weekend.

The average carcass weight of 875 pounds was 26 pounds heavier than a year ago, while the average weight in 2025 was 33 pounds heavier than in 24. Box beef values were mixed last week, with choice off $ 2.70 and select higher by $1.59. The COT report showed that for the week ending April 8, funds had sold 11,900 contracts against commercial buying 12,931. In the last two weeks, funds have sold out of 36,254 contracts, which is the most since the March 2023 recovery unfolded once that liquidation ended.