Tonight’s grain trade is called higher on multiple factors.

Tonight’s grain trade is expected to open higher, with soybeans 5–8 cents stronger and corn and wheat up 2–5 cents, supported by ongoing wet weather across the Central U.S. that continues to delay spring planting. Additionally, sentiment has improved following news that U.S. grain exports will not be significantly affected by the upcoming USTR 301 export tax on Chinese vessels docking at U.S. ports.

The USTR 301 export tax, targeting Chinese vessels, will go into effect on October 14. However, it will apply only to Chinese government-owned or government-paid vessels, representing approximately 10% or less of the fleet involved in U.S. bulk grain shipments. This clarification eases previous concerns, as most import charters will remain unaffected — a major shift in sentiment after the market had been pricing in worst-case scenarios.

Weather forecasts continue to show significant soil moisture replenishment across key U.S. growing regions. However, the excessive moisture is adversely slowing planting progress, particularly in the Delta, South Central, and Southwest Midwest regions, where several delays are expected. Flooding risks are increasing, and discussions about “Prevent Plant” coverage are beginning to surface.

In the Black Sea region, precipitation is forecast to remain below to much below normal over the next week, with only minimal isolated showers projected in the second week. Meanwhile, Chinese wheat areas are expected to remain completely dry for another 10 days, with growing concerns about potential crop stress.

Following a modest pullback last week, the grain market appears to be setting up for a potential end-of-the-month rally. Lately, overnight grain rallies have tended to lose momentum during the day session. However, if selling pressure remains limited during the day, it could signal stronger buying interest moving into the week. Meanwhile, export demand for corn and soybeans continues to exceed USDA projections, putting current carryout estimates at risk of being lowered in the May WASDE report.