A mixed grain trade starts Tuesday morning.

This morning’s grain trade is mixed, with wheat and soybeans trading softer while corn remains firm. Corn is holding strong due to a slower-than-expected U.S. planting pace, with wet weather forecast across the Midwest following the Easter holiday weekend. While serious concern about spring seeding is still a bit early, shrinking old crop stocks continue to lend support to new crop futures. Soybeans are softer after a strong five-day rally, fueled by a wave of Chinese buying. With that momentum fading, the market is now easing in price.

Argentina loosened its currency trading controls overnight, allowing the peso to fall 12%, boosting farmer profits. This devaluation is expected to make Argentine farmers more active sellers of new crop corn and soybeans. President Milei is encouraging these sales. Although Argentina is anticipated to become a more aggressive corn exporter, its corn FOB (free on board) for May delivery remains about $0.90 over, roughly five cents per bushel above U.S. Gulf offers for upriver loadout.

A holdover from the Biden administration, the $3/bushel Climate Smart Initiative, is being rebranded by the Trump administration as “Advanced Markets for Producers. “While full details are still being released, many stakeholders are working to determine project eligibility. A new rule stipulates that 65% of the program’s funding must go directly to farmers.

The Indian government is forecasting above-normal monsoon rainfall for a second consecutive year. Monsoonal rains typically begin across southern India in late May and progress northward through June. Another strong monsoon season would help India replenish its rice and oilseed crop stocks. Meanwhile, the Indian wheat harvest is set to begin in a few weeks.

China has announced plans to cancel all Boeing aircraft orders, signaling a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions. At the same time, China is beginning to slow its pace of Brazilian soybean purchases. Improved rainfall across the Central U.S. has also reduced fears of a major Midwest drought. However, the Black Sea region is forecast to experience an extended hot and dry spell, raising the risk of a short-covering rally in wheat due to the massive short positions held by index funds. Notably, Gulf FOB corn and wheat prices are nearing parity for September deliveries.

Warm, dry weather continues across the Plains and Midwest, which will accelerate spring planting into the weekend. Severe weather, including showers and storms, is expected to develop over the Easter weekend as a trough/ridge pattern forms across the U.S. Beginning Sunday, rain is forecast every 2–3 days across the Plains. However, forecasting models are struggling to pinpoint the precise location of the Western Plains’ dry line. While rainfall is expected, its distribution and amounts will be critical for the Plains region.

Live and feeder cattle futures pushed sharply higher yesterday, with a firm start anticipated this morning. June live cattle marked their second day above the 50-day MA, while feeder cattle futures marked an even stronger day. April feeder cattle gained close to $3 ahead of Thursday’s expiration, while the cash index was $1 higher to start the week at $287. Negotiated fed cattle markets are anticipating a steady-better week after lower prices last week. The 5-area average live steer negotiated price was down $3 last week, and the average dressed price was $9 lower. Packers saw lower volume on the lower prices, buying 52,705 head for the week with 40,118 for 1-15 day delivery and 12,587 for delivery in 15-30 days. Keep in mind that Good Friday and Easter holidays are expected to slow this week’s kill. Box beef values had choice gaining $1.41, while select was $1.89 higher.

There is a chart gap above all cattle contracts from two weeks ago, with June cattle having a target of 203 trying to close that. The 62% retracement of the break from the highs has resistance at 201.50-202, while the 78% retracement is at 204. This makes the gap at 203 a magnet if outside influences can remain neutral/positive.