HRW wheat is lower on potential rain after Easter.

This morning’s grain trade is lower across the board, led mostly by losses in the wheat market due to potentially improving moisture for the HRW wheat belt over Easter weekend and into early next week. Meanwhile, soybeans are steady as non-Chinese buying continues to support the bean market.

China has been an active buyer of Brazilian soybeans, with purchases priced through September due to the current Chinese tariffs of 125% on U.S. goods. Last week, it’s estimated that they purchased 50–55 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans, which has shifted non-Chinese demand back to the U.S.

Although not yet reflected in wheat values this morning, extreme cold swept across Turkish wheat-growing areas over the weekend, potentially causing winterkill losses. Temperatures dropped into the teens and lower 20s. Since wheat is currently jointing, such a temperature drop can be damaging. However, fully assessing the losses will take 5–7 days. Cold this late in spring, along with some snowfall, is highly unusual in Turkey.

This week, warm and dry weather is expected across the Plains and Midwest, which should accelerate spring seeding through Easter. Daily temperatures will range from the 50s to mid-90s, with particularly warm conditions in the Southern U.S. The Plains will see rain chances every 2–3 days, but weather models are struggling to determine the exact location of the dryline for rainfall. Currently, the EU model places the dryline farther east, limiting any meaningful Central Plains rainfall to eastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska. A persistent high-pressure ridge over the Black Sea region will maintain a dry weather pattern with limited rainfall expected over the next two weeks. Much-above-normal temperatures will dominate across Northern Europe and the Black Sea region.

Last week, live and feeder cattle futures moved lower but are showing a steady to firm outlook this morning, supported by improving stock indexes overnight. Negotiated fed cattle trade was lower across all regions. In the North, live sales were down $3 on the week at $208, while the Southern trade was $4 lower, also at $208. It appears an early seasonal top was reached several weeks ago, and the outlook for this week remains steadily softer in the cash trade.

Cattle slaughter last week dropped by 27,000 head to 564,000, which is 34,000 head fewer than the same week a year ago. Year-to-date cumulative slaughter is 5% lower than in 2024 and at its lowest since 2016. Despite the decline in slaughter, boxed beef values were lower last week. The choice cutout value declined by $4, while select fell by $3. Key support for June cattle remains near $193 on a closing basis. If this level fails, longer-term weekly chart support may be tested in the $189–190 range. Upside recovery for June cattle will likely face resistance at $200–201.