KC wheat maintains overall grain strength heading into the weekend.

This morning’s grain trade has wheat and soybeans firm while the corn market retreats from yesterday’s recovery. March futures expire at the close today, and deliveries of 125 contracts of soymeal, 24 contracts of soy oil, 11 contracts of KC wheat, 30 contracts of soybeans, and four contracts of Chicago wheat were tendered overnight. Yesterday, open interest in corn rows was 5,216 contracts and 1,087 contracts of soybeans. Meanwhile, Chicago wheat’s open interest declined by 3,289. Large capital flows are not entering the CBOT grain complex or possibly waiting until the March 31 acreage report is out of the way.

The Argentine oilseed workers lifted their strike late on Thursday and will start wage negotiations on Monday. This had Argentine crushing plants back in operation, but close attention will be paid to port operators and crush plant employees for future attempts to raise wages. Seasonally, this typically occurs in an attempt to raise wages through work walkouts during or just before the onset of their corn and soybean harvest. Soybean price weakness was moderate overnight and found soybean oil buying interest.

Northeast Brazil remains dry through the weekend but there is a chance of erratic rain starting around March 18. The dryness of the past 30 days has heard an estimated 30% of the Brazilian winter corn crop but improvement is ahead. Also, there are concerns of the tight supply of Brazilian corn with a basis much stronger than normal. The old crop carry out for Brazilian corn is put at 2% stocks/use ratio until the new winter crop becomes available in late June/early July.

Plains wheat dryness looks to persist while the Midwest/Delta will be wet over the coming week and through March 29. Temperatures remain slightly warmer than normal seasonal temps.

Cattle futures had burst higher yesterday but closed well off session highs creating a mixed opening this morning. China’s access for nearly 1000 US meat exporters will end the Sunday as the US and China have not been able to reach an extension. China requires that food exporters to China register with customs to be able to sell meat and other food products within China. Registrations for 84 USB plants collapsed in February, but China continues to allow their production to clear customs. Under the 2020 Phase 1 Deal, the US/China reached a protocol granting access to US meat exporters at risk of losing the $5 million annual market. Rising US tariffs on imported Chinese goods have produced elevated trade tensions.

Negotiated fed cattle markets remained quiet through Thursday with packer bids of $200, while some areas are holding out for 204. Box beef values were lower on Thursday with choice slipping $1.41/CWT and select was off six cents. Still, both values are at record seasonal levels. June cattle stalled right at the $200 value on Thursday which will likely become an important number given the larger supply that arrives over the summer and the fear of recessionary reduced spending.