The market awaits "Liberation Day" announcements at 4 PM ET today.

This morning’s grain trade is lower, with the exception of soybean oil and KC wheat, which are still holding a small gain. The coalition agreement between oil companies and biofuel providers to raise the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for 2026-2028 green diesel fuel appears promising. The grain trade is softening after a three-day bounceyesterday for corn, as the Liberation Day trade tariffs are likely to be announced today at 4 PM Eastern time.

Soybean oil support is tied to the prospect that the group visiting the EPA today with their new proposal on RVOs may have a chance to avoid a policy discourse that occurred in the first trumpet ministration. There has now been massive investment by big oil in renewable diesel during the Biden ministration, so coming to a settlement on RVO’s should likely be easier. However, it is unknown whether the EPA will accept the group's RVO proposal or make modifications. It will take several months of policy decision-making at the EPA, along with the 45Z public comment period ending next Thursday, also under EPA review.

Fund managers have backed off their riskiest trades over the last few weeks, with importers, producers, and government officials awaiting tariff details to respond. There will likely be tariff retaliation against US agriculture as the new US tariffs take effect immediately. However, the Trump tariffs are also being aligned with farmer support, similar to his first ministration by using tariff money to facilitate the CCC. Similar to Monday’s grain trade, so much bearishness has been priced into the grain trade that after the initial announcement, we may see another grain bounce again further from short covering and end-user pricing to the recent break in price into the end of the month/end of the quarter on March 31.

Heavy rainfall will drop across the Delta and the southern Midwest from later today through early next week with accumulations of 3-9.00″. The forecast models have backed on rainfall accumulations that had exceeded 10 inches. Flooding will become widespread. Winter grains will be left standing, and planting delays, which are expected to extend beyond April 12, will continue. The heavy rain is expected to end late Monday or Tuesday, with a needed slate of dry weather to follow. Unfortunately, dry weather is produced by eight NW upper airflow, meaning that cool to cold temperatures will prevail.

The southern and central plains will experience rain chances from Friday through the weekend, followed by an extended period of dry weather. The EU and GFS models have been apart on the plain’s rainfall forecast for more than a week, but it appears the GFS has been more correct, with a deepening drought to follow. The northern plains are dry and cool/cold temperatures, limiting any hope of spring fieldwork for the time being. However, showers are also needed here.

Cattle and feeder cattle futures closed higher on Tuesday, with a firm start anticipated this morning. June live cattle picked up $2, but deferred futures showed better gains of $2.60. Feeder cattle were up over $3 despite the corn rally. Meanwhile, the negotiated fed cattle trade has neither bids nor offers quoted. The rally at the CME suggests that a surge in beef prices will prompt cattle owners to look to sell their cattle at a higher price. Box beef prices increased, with Choice beef up $7.00 yesterday and Select up $2.00. Choice beef marked a counter-seasonal decline in February but has rallied sharply recently and is back in line with normal seasonal trends. If the market were to track the 10-year trend from January 1, the choice cutout would reach $400 by late May.