A new month and a new quarter has buying across commodities.

After a softer night session, the grain trade is firmer across the board as we start a new month and a new quarter. Yesterday’s corn open interest was up a massive 35,432 contracts while soybeans gained 5046 contracts. It appears buying is entering in the wake of the March Stocks, and the Seeding Report is out of the way. With the weather for the Brazilian corn crop and the US central chill with rain, a new month's recovery appears to be underway.

This morning, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration would announce tariffs of at least 20% on a host of goods imported into the US. The announcement could be made as soon as this afternoon or during the day on Wednesday. It will be closely watched as any new tariffs on Mexico and Canada, as well as whether prior tariffs are layered on due to cross-border fentanyl trade.
As stated yesterday, the US Treasury Secretary suggested that the initial reciprocal US tariffs focus on just 15 nations, the so-called “Dirty 15.” Whether overnight grain buying is tied to inflation fears is unknown, and it is too early to tell. US financial markets are lower today, with Dow futures off 250 points, and the 10-year US treasury note yield has fallen to 4.16%. Gold overnight again made another new record high at $3177 before retreating.

The weather forecast for the Midwest and Delta over the next two weeks is expected to be cold and wet. Another round of snow is forecasted for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The forecast for spring planting is not promising, but there remains a considerable amount of time before any yield impact will be noted. The Plains' dryness is being closely monitored in relation to the deepening drought. Heavy rainfall will drop across the Delta and southern Midwest from Thursday onward, producing 3-8.00″ accumulations through early next week. This will create localized flooding, delay spring planting, and produce standing water for winter grains.

The EU model is now backing away from plains rainfall, and the GFS model, which has been dry, is maintaining that trend with the EU switching in that direction. For now, Plains rainfall is estimated at 1-1.20 inches, with heavier totals concentrated in the eastern plains. 3-8.00 inches of snow is expected to fall across the northern plains today through the end of the week.

Live cattle and feeder cattle prices were lower on Monday, with a steady outlook anticipated this morning. Live cattle corrected some more of last week’s gains, but losses in feeder cattle were limited by a surge in the cash feeder Index, which jumped $4.74 to a record high of $291.50. Boxed beef values started the week with the choice rising $2.44/cwt and the select value picking up $1.33.

The cattle slaughter last week had packers buying 62,630 head on a negotiated basis, with negotiated beef-type cattle purchases down over 32,000 head for the week. Packers purchased 58,853 for 1-14 day delivery and 3,770 heads for 1-30 day delivery. Cumulative purchases for 2025 are down 2% from a year ago and are at a record low. June cattle need to maintain support at 200-201.