USDA Stocks and Acreage Intention report out at 11:00 a.m. CT today.

This morning’s grain trade is firm to higher, led by soybeans, while KC wheat is the weakest link on showers brewing across the driest areas of the HRW wheat belt (mainly on the EU model). Soybeans pressed the 1030 region overnight as soybean meal is finding the crush spread correcting after favoring soybean oil last week, on the strength of Malaysian Palm oil and reduced access to used cooking oil from China due to increasing tariffs.

The trade has fully braced for a 94.5 million acre corn report, with a whisper number suggesting it is likely 95 million acres or more. This makes the report release of 94.5 Mil essentially a friendly report and to be bearish, the acreage number would have to be above 95 Mil. Even then, a number at 95 would cause the corn market to push lower on a sell-the-rumor basis, but then the buy-fact profit-taking will kick in. Preventive Plant will be on the rise with storms that stay in the forecast from the Delta into the S Midwest for weeks.

Monday is not the only tough day of action to get through. Wednesday is a reciprocal tariff deadline, in which US Pres. Trump is calling Trade Liberation Day. Nearly every nation faces new US tariffs. US trade Sec. Bessent suggested that initial reciprocal US tariffs focus on just 15 nations that they will call the “dirty 15”. On a different comment, Pres. Trump indicated that new tariffs would apply to all nations. Whether Trump raises tariffs against Mexico/Canada will be key. It is anticipated that nations will have a 30-45 day window to negotiate with the US to delay or lower tariffs once a new set of tariffs is announced.

The New York Times is reporting that the Trump administration is considering additional financial assistance for farmers amid slumping prices and declining margins. US tariff dollars being collected are expected to be funneled into the Commodity Credit Corporation, with legislative assistance from Congress helping to replenish CCC funding. Currently, just $4 billion of financial assistance is available through the CCC.

A variable central US temperature pattern is forecasted, with warming featured in the 11-15 day window. Nearby, the Midwest and Plains will be cooler than normal, with highs holding 4-7° below normal in the 40s to lower 70s. Milder temperatures return after this week. Heavy rainfall is forecasted for the Delta and the southern Midwest. The EU holds out rain chances into areas of Kansas and eastern Colorado. The Black Sea region is forecasted to experience scattered rains, while Western Europe is expected to experience dryness. Variable temperatures are forecasted while heat builds for central Russia.

Cattle and feeder cattle futures ended better again over the prior week with a mixed outlook offered this morning due to losses in the stock market and tariff talk. Cattle slaughter last week jumped 49,000 head to a new high for the year at 600-9000 head. The cumin to slaughter of 7.3 Mil head is still 5% less than a year ago and the lowest since 2016.

Boxed beef values were sharply higher last week, with choice cutout gaining $7.37, led by a $33/CWT rally in the choice room primal. The select cut gained $4.43, with both values at record March prices.
The COT report, released as of March 25, showed funds buying 17,717 contracts against commercials selling 20,985. Last week, nearby live cattle gained over $1 for the week.