Grain selling continues as fears mount from Monday’s acreage report.

This morning’s grain trade sees more ongoing selling as fears grow that a large acreage number for corn will be reported on Monday’s seeding intentions report. Meanwhile, wheat continues to find selling despite a GFS weather model remaining dry. Although the EU model wants to bring moisture in, and that’s what the trade always hooks onto when they see a hint of rain.

News that former adversaries are now acting as friends in Washington, D.C., and pushing for increased biodiesel and renewable diesel blend rates supported soybeans yesterday. According to reports, lobbyists and representatives from both the oil and renewable fuel industries have been meeting recently following President Trump's request that they present a plan for the next phase of the renewable fuel industry to him. Driven by guidance from the Biden administration and the Inflation Reduction Act, many oil companies have invested in renewable fuels over the past few years, particularly in the renewable diesel sector. These investments have come under pressure recently due to the Biden administration's failure to provide guidance on 45Q tax credits, which are intended to replace the $1.00/gallon blending credit previously offered. This lack of guidance has significantly impacted margins and led to a slowdown in production.

While it seems as though we might be making progress towards peace from the headlines earlier in the week, increased attacks on the ground and the idea that Russia won’t have its demands met for a Black Sea ceasefire indicate otherwise. Overnight, Russia launched over 163 drones, according to Ukraine, targeting the Zaporizhzhia Oblast and other areas across the country. Recent reports indicate attacks in Zaporizhzhia have been on the rise, especially after President Trump had mentioned the US possibly taking control of the nuclear plant in the oblast, which happens to be Europe’s largest. Putin has pushed back on this, saying the plant is in Russian control currently and will stay that way going forward as a condition of peace. Additionally, Russia seeks to improve banking conditions by allowing them to utilize the SWIFT banking system for transactions. A cease-fire does not look assured, yet the market trades as it will as part of the bearish elements.

Most countries are holding off on any formal response to President Trump’s most recent auto tariff announcements and are waiting until next week’s reciprocal tariff announcements before proceeding. When it comes to auto tariffs, Mexico, Japan, and South Korea will be hit the hardest. Japan stated overnight that it currently does not view countermeasures as the most effective response, a sentiment echoed by South Korea. Mexico has taken a similar approach, with officials stating that they will wait until after April 2nd to determine their approach to trade with the US. Ahead of next week, we are seeing delegations from several countries descend upon DC, hoping to strike a deal. A multi-day meeting between officials from the United States and India is currently underway, with both parties stating that the ultimate goal is a bilateral trade deal by the fall. According to reports, India is considering significantly reducing tariffs on 55% of its goods in an attempt to appease the Trump administration, with liquefied natural gas and other energy and agricultural products reportedly on the list.

The two primary weather models are at odds for the dry plains states. The EU model predicts wet conditions next week with a needed rainfall of 0.4-2.00″ across KS, TX, and OK. Meanwhile, the GFS model offers virtually no rain and is dry, with heavy rains of 4-9.00″ focused on the Delta and Southern Midwest. HRW wheat crop is in dire need of rain, while excessive rain in the Delta would only promote diseases and produce flooding of newly planted corn fields.

After a sharply lower start, live and feeder cattle futures ended with sharply higher gains on Thursday, with a firm start anticipated this morning. April live cattle pushed on to a new record high close of $209.55, while June also set a new contract high close as well. March feeder cattle set a record expiration high for the March contract at $ 287.65 versus $247.20 last year. Cash markets are still largely at a standstill, with small volumes purchased early in the week, which are unlikely to be sufficient to meet upcoming slaughter demand. More sales are expected today and likely at steady to higher prices. Boxed beef values yesterday had choice backing off $2.58, while select was up $2.91.

Beef cow slaughter has fallen again sharply in 2025. Cumulative slaughter is down 20% from a year ago, the lowest since 2016 and the third lowest on record. The January 1 beef cow herd is the smallest since the 1960s, but the slaughter relative to the inventory is at an 8-year low.