Grains recovers smartly from Wednesday’s sharp losses.

This morning’s grain trade is higher across the board with soybeans leading the advance along with Kansas City wheat on dry windy weather concerns in the HRW wheat belt. Soybeans are finding strength off of soybean meal, helping produce major support in the 9.94-10.00 price range for beans that is mounting a recovery trade across the board again. The post-WASDE report selling from the European tariff application allowed another opportunity to pick up corn and meal products on sale. Strength in the Brazilian real is helping soybean support.

Overnight, the Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its 2025 Argentine soybean production estimate by 1 MMT to 46.5 MMT. The corn crop estimate is also off 1.5 MMT from the February forecast to 44.5 MMTs. Of course, the industry usually thinks the forecasts are too low given the recent March rainfall. CONAB raised its production number to 167.367 MMTs, up from 166,014 MMTs. These numbers are still below the industry estimates in the 169-170 range.

The Plains have persistent dryness that looks to stay in place into late March, while current moisture remains to the east from Georgia north to Indiana and Iowa Northeast into Wisconsin. High winds will occur across the dry HRW wheat belt over the weekend, with above-normal temperatures that look to persist. This is helping Kansas City lead the present wheat rally, which you will now be bursting through moving average resistance that stalled earlier in the week. The reapplied large wheat short by index funds is becoming at risk again, with seasonals being positive for wheat at this time of year and the concerning wheat forecast not only for the US Plains but for the Black Sea region that is coming out of dormancy in poor condition.

It was another sharply higher session on Wednesday for cattle and feeder cattle, with a firm start anticipated for this morning. Yesterday's strength in deferred live cattle and weaker corn prices helped fuel feeder cattle gains of $3.00, setting contract highs across the board. Yesterday the cash feeder index showed a gain of $2.17 and is at $278.71.

Negotiated live cattle markets are anticipated to be steady to higher with more widespread trade developing today. Cattle slaughter at midweek is 362,000 head, 17,000 head more than last week and 12,000 more than a year ago. Despite the uptick in production, box beef prices hold good gains for the week. Wednesday, the choice cutout was off a dime but still $6.20 higher for the week. Select picked up $0.67 yesterday and was $ 1.73 higher this week. Yesterday’s consumer price data showed the average retail beef price in February picked up 1% higher than in January and 7% higher than a year ago at a record $8.64/pound as retail prices of marked annualized gains and 21 of the last 23 months.