March WASDE data out at 11:00 a.m. CDT.

Row crop prices are higher this morning while wheat is softer in classic Turnaround-Tuesday style ahead of today’s March WASDE Crop Report at 11:00 a.m. CDT. Bloomberg is out reporting that trade talks between the US and China are occurring at lower levels of both governments which is creating frustration. Pres. Trump and Xi have not spoken since early February, and no in-person meetings are planned.

Wheat is softer despite yesterday afternoon’s crop condition report that Kansas City winter wheat crop ratings fell 2% out of the good/excellent category to 52%, this is amid dry weather and gusty winds which will again pick up this weekend. The Texas wheat crop rating was off 6% and down to 28% good/excellent while Oklahoma wheat conditions gained 11% putting them at 46% from the prior week as rains did fall. Rain will need to pick up in the forecasts because of the drought that has been building since December. Over the next 10 days, strong gusty winds and dry weather are in the forecast.

Today’s report typically does not have a lasting impact on grain values. The biggest numbers to be focused on today’s data will be the South American crop size estimates. Demand will not likely be adjusted in today’s data. Of note is the weakening US dollar that could have an effect in the April data, especially with yesterday’s corn export inspections well above estimates. Soybeans continue to receive support from the firming basis in South America as one port is still shut down with conveyor belt problems, and the Brazilian real which has been rising alongside the weakening US dollar.

Eastern and northern Brazil will continue to endure dry weather for the next 5-7 days before potential showers in the forecast develop. Meanwhile, high temperatures in the 90s to lower 100s, deepening drought conditions have been building for over a month. The heat and dryness is stressing the last 30% of Brazilian beans are planted late and the Brazilian winter corn crop.

It appears that the dryness in the Plains will worsen over the next 10 days, and this will occur amid a blizzard in the northeastern Plains and NW Midwest. While record warmth will occur across the Plains. A deepening drought across the Black Sea continues with limited rainfall into March 25. With much above normal temperatures and highs in the 70s will coax the wheat out of dormancy in Russia.

The cattle complex pushed higher again yesterday with consolidation near the close. A mixed opening is anticipated this morning. April live cattle have held gains over $200 while June has risen above $197. The cattle complex did ward off weakness from a collapsing stock market yesterday, but many are still wondering if the stock market is foretelling weakening consumer demand into the spring. Box beef prices had choice gaining $2.68/CWT while select was up $1.15. The beef market did forge its seasonal low at the start of the month and is now trending higher. However, estimated slaughter margins remain in the red.

June live cattle have resistance just above yesterday’s high at 198 which is a 78% retracement of the January 29 high to the March 4 low. April feeder stalled $0.20 shy of their January high. Since April feeder cattle are the spot continuation contract, the continuation contract high was 279.82. This puts a lot of resistance for April feeder cattle at 279-280. Spikes can occur, but it’s closes that matter.