The Friday grain trade is starting soft. A higher close today could create a higher weekly reversal.

This morning grain trade is softer by pennies for corn and soybeans, while the wheat trade retreats from trading $1.00 over corn. The wheat/corn spread should find support in the $0.80 range with weather conditions across the Black Sea, and in the US southern plains are dry, supporting world valuations. Yield estimations will become critical as Russian wheat stocks are dwindling fast. There is a conversation that Putin may move to restrict exports further to combat the bread inflation that his Ag minister has reported this week to be of concern.

Despite the highly advertised large South American soybean crop, basis levels across Brazil continue to improve for both corn and soybeans. South American basis is underpinning US corn and soybean values.

Brazilian winter corn crop is finding a critical need for rain after another week of dryness continues ahead. The eastern third of the winter corn crop is in critical need of rain by the last 10 days of March and throughout April, which will make or break the 2025 winter corn crop if patterns do not change. Because of the tight corn supply, we will likely see a weather market trading in corn, with forecasts becoming headline trading.

It has been an exhausting week of headline trading over the US tariffs, but the Tuesday lows have marked critical support values that reflect the raw value for now for US crops. With President Trump granting another 30 days for Canada/Mexico to meet expectations on fentanyl flow and border control, corn buying for Mexico and ethanol into Canada remain unimpeded now.

Due to the recent sharp break in grain pricing, confidence in the row crop seeding estimates from the USDA Farm form is being questioned. US farmers will determine the estimated acreage mix when they report in the last half of March, and then the USDA reveals it on the March 31 Acreage Intention report. With the recent US dollar drop, worrisome weather forecast for Brazilian winter corn, and the ongoing dryness across the Black Sea and Eastern Europe, grain values will likely recover in the weeks ahead.

Live and feeder cattle prices retreated on Thursday from their sharp gains Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday’s retreat was primarily a function of the Trump administration’s revision of the USMCA rather than the blanket tariffs of 25% on Mexican goods. That reprieve is through April 2. Index fund length in the cattle trade is still considered sizable and possibly near 122,000 contracts. Friday afternoons COT commit report will be closely watched. As yesterday afternoon's video revealed, June live cattle have large resistance above 196, making a close above 197.00 an important feet.