Soybeans lead the overnight grain charge to the upside.

This morning’s grain trade has sharply higher soybeans, with wheat and corn also gaining. Less-than-promised rains over the Argentine region that need moisture and the absence of any Trump tariffs against China have the grain trade in full buy mode. Corn is producing its highest spot valuation since late 2023. President Trump did say if he was not getting any results from Mexico or Canada on fentanyl and immigration issues, he would apply 25% tariffs to them.

Wheat futures found buying interest on the cold weather descending on HRW wheat production with minimal to no snow cover. Also, news has it that cash connected talk has Egypt making a Russian wheat purchase on the weekend of at least 200,000 MTs. The transaction was private and the purchase price was not disclosed. It’s a surprise because Egypt had said they were done buying wheat, but as typical when they say that, you can almost expect another by to follow soon. Typically, Egypt is done buying wheat by February, as a wheat harvest starts in early April.

Friday’s COT report showed that managed money was now net long 292,220 contracts of corn, are now long 34,833 contracts of soybeans, which was up 63,000+ from the prior week, and long 7650 contracts of soybean oil. They are still net short 94,393 contracts of Chicago wheat and 63,520 soymeal contracts. There is a disparity in ownership in the managed long in corn and the managed money short of Chicago wheat.

The forecast over the weekend produced less rain than anticipated for areas of Argentina, but of course, long-term models that have consistently failed to bring moisture in show improved chances for Southern Brazil and N Argentina in the next 10 days. Meanwhile, Northern Brazil will see a drier flow, accelerating their soybean harvest, barely 2% harvested and its lowest since 2021. Brazilian harvest should be approaching 10% currently. Buenos Aires, which is in the southern area of Argentine soybean production, is the province where it is most needs the rain and accounts for 30% of the first-season soybean crop. The next chance of rain is this Thursday/Friday. Temperatures ease across Argentina to the 80s and 90s, with no extreme heat forecast for Brazil.

Both live and feeder cattle futures ended lower last week compared to the previous Friday. There is a mixed call for live and feeder cattle futures this morning as it is being debated whether tariffs of 25% will go on February 1 to both Canada and Mexico, especially now that Mexico is allowed to bring feeder cattle back into the United States.

Cattle slaughter last week rose by 14,000 head to a 4-week high of 603,000 head but was 2000 less than a year ago. The average carcass weight of 876 pounds was up 4 pounds for the week and 5 pounds under the record high marked three weeks ago. Compared to a year ago, the average carcass weight is 34 pounds heavier. Box beef values last week were steady to higher, with the choice cutout picking up $0.85 while select gained to $5.69 for the week.