After a firm night start, grains are mixed this morning.

This morning’s grain trade shows wheat with penny gains, while row crops are lower by a few pennies. Trade awaits an announcement on the tariffs against Canada and Mexico by Tuesday midnight. Mexico is moving quickly on details that Commerce Sec. Howard let next that Pres. Trump will determine if the plan to 20 reps and tariffs go on or not as planned. Market reaction will be in March now, the next 48 hours, from one comment to the next from officials. China has re-iterated overnight that USA products will be targeted in retaliation.

After Tuesday, the trade will move back more to global weather patterns. US central rainfall is absent rain forecasts, and now there will be net soil moisture loss that will persist into March 17 across the US plains. 90-day moisture deficits in Kansas City, Nebraska and Iowa range from 1-3 inches. The NOAA puts the odds of a drought eliminating their Friday, May 1, at anywhere from 10-50%. Meanwhile, warmth will accelerate moisture loss in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, where max temps in the 6- 10 day period are forecasted to be in the 60s and 70s.

Dryness is noted in Eastern Europe, Ukraine, and southern Russia. A pattern change is needed there, as nothing occurs before mid-March. The Brazilian forecast is less certain amid model disagreement and on whether rainfall returns in the dryer Safrina-producing corn areas of Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, and Paraná after March 13-14, which is important.

Early grain price lows over tariff fears should occur at the beginning of this week, with recovery pricing coming from potential tariff resolution throughout the rest of the week. More importantly, weather models will dominate along with the prospects of what the acreage mix will actually become going into the March 31 acreage intention report.

Live and feeder cattle prices tumbled at the end of the week, and a mixed outlook is offered for early trade this morning. Live cattle futures were lower on fund liquidation, while feeder cattle were still higher on the week despite Friday's sharply lower action. The feeder index last week was $2.22 higher at $281, just under the record high set in January.

Most of last week's cash trade was held on Friday, with lower prices in all regions. Live sales in the north were off $3 at $197, and dressed sales were $to lower at $313. Meanwhile, live sales in the South were off $2 at $197. When compared to last year, live sales all regions were $13-14 higher.

Cattle slaughter last week was off 3000 head and was 28,000 head fewer than a year ago. Cumulative slaughter is down 7.5% from year ago and the smallest since 2016. Meanwhile, boxed beef values were slightly mixed for the week, with choice cutout gaining $1 while select was off $0.52. Of course, both values were at record levels at the end of February. Every cattle expired at $198 versus 184 a year ago. April live cattle are now $4 under the cash market with massive support at the 200-day MA near $19 and chart support in the 189-190 range via prior highs that should now become support.