First notice day and the last trading day of the month bring a morning bounce in price.

Markets are trading higher this morning, with wheat leading the way to start the day. Deliveries were light to non-existent but mainly applied to soybean oil and meal. With the calendar turning to March next week and the USDA Outlook Forum wrapping up, much trade attention will start to turn to the new crop outlook and all the potential paths to an ending stocks figure we could head down.

Ukraine’s President Zelensky is expected to travel to the White House today to sign the much-discussed mineral deal. The meeting of the two, seen as a win by Zelensky as he will meet Trump in person before Putin, will likely provide some insight into his thoughts on President Trump’s push for peace. Trump walked back from his calling Zelensky a dictator last week, saying yesterday that he believed they would get along very well.

Though corn export sales remain well above the pace needed to meet current USDA projections, yesterday’s sales of 795,000 metric tons were seen as disappointing. Soybean and wheat sales were also respectable but below pre-report expectations, leading to disappointment for traders. From an overall standpoint, soybean sales are still ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA projections, though that gap is expected to shrink seasonally as Brazil’s supply starts to work into the pipeline. Wheat sales are below the pace needed to meet projections and could be open to a trim in the outlook as we head into the last quarter of the wheat market year.

The grain trade is fearing the end of the Black Sea war as Russia has exported all the wheat it wanted to last summer and fall and is now restricting its sales until new crop. Meanwhile, Ukraine has been able to export what it had from last year’s crop without any impedance. There is no influx of old-crop corn or wheat coming out of the Black Sea region over the next 4-6 months. It will have to wait for new crop.

Brazilian farmers and traders will be out of the office to start next week, celebrating Carnival, which will likely slow down cash market activity. Rumors that China’s government canceled a soybean reserve auction caught the market slightly off guard yesterday, as many were anticipating a push of government beans into the domestic market to help cover some of the physical shortages. Traders believe the cancellation is an attempt by the government to push prices higher ahead of planting.

The EPA has filed a motion to dismiss the RVO deadline lawsuit brought against it by the Clean Air Alliance, further delaying the deadline to set new RVO’s for 2026-2028 the EPA under the past administration and now the current administration seems to not fully support US biofuels with no evidence of announcing new subsidies or regulations under 45Z.

Rain is needed across the Plains, the Black Sea, and portions of India for the winter wheat crops. Russia has struggled with a poor wheat crop that went into dormancy. It experienced very warm temperatures in January and exceedingly cold temperatures in February. Despite the volatility in wheat, there is upside potential for wheat price recovery in the northern hemisphere as crops try to make trendline yields.

Yesterday’s cattle trade again showed strength as cattle futures shrugged off the weakness of the raw material markets and the weaker stock market that is presenting fears of recession. It’s the tight supplies and lack of forward-fed supplies that remains supportive. Box beef prices are known to turn higher from this time of the year into early summer, and that trend does not look to be disrupted until the US-Mexican feeder cattle trade is fully resolved. Trump’s tariff against Mexico/Canada could complicate forward US beef supplies. The outlook is one of volatility rather than outright bullishness into winter. Unlike the grain trade and hogs, trade wars favor cattle prices. The US was a net beef importer of 648,000 MTs in 2024, and imports at the beginning of 2025 look to project 828,000 MTs for this year. Placing US tariffs on Canada/Mexico is bullish for the US Fed cattle industry on tightening beef supplies and fewer imports.