The grain trade is broadly mixed. Forum results out.

This morning’s grain trade is mixed with soybeans showing gains of 6-8 cents, while the wheat trade has Chicago off 8 cents, Kansas down 6, and spring wheat off 2 cents. Corn lower by 3 cent after this morning’s initial acreage release from the USDA Ag Forum.

The USDA produced an acreage guess of 94 million acres on corn, 84 Mil on beans with wheat put at 47 Mil. Corn and beans were close to average guesses, while the wheat was near the high end.

This will be the second largest planted corn crop in 10 years, second only to 2023, which was put at 94.6 million acres. 181 BPA was used for production (the closest we came to that number in the last 6 years is 177.6), giving us a total production number of 15,585 Mil Bu. This allows them to push the carryout for new crop to 1,965 Mil Bu, up 425 Mil Bu from their current year number, which was a miss of 700 Mil last year and could still be increased yet.

Soybean production was multiplied by 52.5 BPA, giving us a crop of 4,370 Mil Bu, putting our carryout at 320 Mil Bu. The crush rate increased by 65 Mil Bu and was placed at 2,475 Mil Bu, with exports rising by 40 Mil Bu to 1,865 Mil Bu. An observation is that the trade war with China was not taken in consideration, and if Trump were to get the phase 1 deal back in place, carryout for soybeans could end up being a lot lower.

Wheat ending stocks were put at 826 Mil Bu, up 32 Mil from the current crop year on the rise and beginning stocks and demand put stable. The average farm gate price on winter wheat was put at $5.50, which is off five cents. With the Farm Forum numbers out, the focus will be on the reality of the farmer acreage intentions report on March 31 which takes more precedents.

Rains are falling across Argentina’s main crop areas and will continue until March 6, when drier conditions will occur in the 10-15-day window. The flooding risk should be diminished as long as it rains and by March 6. Temperatures are cool to near seasonal levels under cloud-filled skies early next week. Motto Grosso’s rainfall is near normal, but the remainder of Brazil will see totals below normal to advance the harvest and the seeding of the winter corn crop in the next 10 days. Improved rain chances appear in the 10-15 day window except for NE Brazil as the monsoon progresses eastward.

Cattle and feeder cattle futures ended lower on Wednesday, with a steady to weaker outlook anticipated at the start of the session. April live cattle have now turned lower at midweek after stopping short of the 50-day moving average on Tuesday, where index funds chose to liquidate more positions again. March feeder cattle were slightly higher on the spot contract, with deferred cattle slightly lower at the close. The cash feeder Index slipped $0.71 at $were to 70.73, which is just under record highs and well above the futures contracts.

Light cash trade was reported in Kansas on Wednesday at $197, $2 lower for the week, but meaningful trade volumes have yet to develop. Given the performance of the February live cattle contract, the outlook has turned steady to potentially $2 lower for the week. Yesterday afternoon’s February Cold Storage report showed that at the end of January, total beef stocks were off less than 1% from a year ago and the lowest in 11 years. Seasonally, beef stocks tend to fall now into August, though cattle and beef prices peak in May.